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16 June 2021
09:36 hour

StckLife after the 'rona

Reddit Stock Market

10/06/2021 - 23:39

Its no secret, the whole 'rona situation messed up the stock market completely. Stocks that should have exponential growth lost money. Stocks that should perish got mooned. Some examples are the bio comp. MRNA got x9 value since the whole outbreak started. Meanwhile, WMT (possibly the most well-known retail company in the US) barely made +15% on the same timespan. How do you think the "end" of the pandemic (possibly this fall) is gonna affect our stocks? Do you expect sudden plummet of some of those companies that mooned during these tough years? Do you think companies that got staled will jumpstart again? Im asking as a newb, I want to pick your brains to see what a pro investor thinks.   submitted by   /u/pinelakias [link]   [comments]


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  1. Ovid Therapeutics appoints Jeff Rona as CFO (04/06/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  2. [DD] A reopening Small Cap Growth play with great upside potential ($DS) (18/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    MODS: I posted this in r/investing and thought you all might be interested in the DD. Note: Greetings fellow investors! This is not financial advice. Just wanted to put some DD out there and get your thoughts on my analysis. TLDR; I believe Drive Shack ($DS) is an undervalued small-cap reopening play that is likely to go well over $5 in the next 6 months. I am currently holding 3,000+ shares in addition to 8/20/21 5.0c and 8/20/21 7.5c. The Bull Case What is Drive Shack ($DS)? What I would classify as a Small-Cap Growth stock under $4 that could easily go above $6 in the next few months. Drive Shack owns and operates multiple golf-related leisure and entertainment venues. It’s a boozy golf concept – think Topgolf ($ELY). Shares in Drive Shack have rallied by over 115% in the last year, with increasing volume over the last several months and significantly more Institutional ownership being added. Market Cap: 286.4M Share Float: 59.97M % Held by Institutions: 35.69% % Held by Insiders: 13.16% Short % of Float: 1.3% Quarterly supplement report here Drive Shack owns and/or operates 60 traditional golf courses and is the parent company of American Golf (AGC). They operate 6 Top Golf Style venues in Orlando, Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; Richmond, Virginia; West Palm Beach, Florida; Manhattan, New York and a New Orleans, LA venue on hold. Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/KZxAcxe Here is where things get interesting. Drive Shack intends to open a number of new “Puttery” venues. What is Puttery? Think High Tech Miniature golf for adults + cocktails + premium food. They have recently announced a strategic partnership with Rory McIlroy for collaboration with the Puttery concept. Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/McwqxI9 Their goal is to build 17 Puttery venues and complete the Drive Shack Manhattan by the end of 2022. Target Puttery venue EBITDA is $2 to $3 million and Drive Shack venue EBITDA is $4 to $6 million. Why does this matter? As we can see, the cost to develop a Puttery is significantly lower than the capital required to build and operate a Topgolf style Drive Shack location. ROI is also significantly higher with the Puttery concept. By 2024 they are targeting over 50+ Puttery venues. Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/Qk1cbzM Their next biggest competitor is of course Topgolf. Top Golf was recently acquired by Callaway Golf Company ($ELY). Topgolf currently has 28 open locations in the United States, with another dozen opening soon all over the place. Topgolf is continuing on its expansion plans in major American cities, as well expanding into Australia, Mexico and Canada through licensing deals. ELY details below: Market Cap: 5.7B Share Float: 93.1M % Held by Institutions: 105.76% Short % of Float: 16.77% What did Top Golf recently announce they will be investing significantly in? High Tech Miniature Golf For Adults of course. They are doing precisely what Drive Shack is doing, because the Puttery style concept is more lucrative and costs significantly less to develop. Pay particular attention to the % held by institutions. The real money often comes from institutional investors. Professional money managers are always looking to outperform the benchmark. In the exhibit below, we can clearly see the accelerated interest from institutional and professional money managers, with money increasingly flowing into Drive Shack. This is because professional money managers want and need to outperform the S&P and other benchmarks to keep their clients happy. They will continue to scoop up Drive Shack in the coming months which will put considerable upward pressure on the stock price. Institutional ownership on $ELY is HIGH. How High Can She Go? I believe $DS will approach 7.50 by end of summer. The market will likely soon to begin pricing in more of these Puttery locations. Let’s have a look at the institutional ownership. Where the “smart money” is allocated currently. Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/bfq6AM0 As we can see, over 36% OF ALL 13f filings own Drive Shack – up from 33% previously. What is our PUT/CALL ratio among 13/f filers? 9.32. 9-to-1 are shorting. Buy why? How many total Calls do we have? A mere 208 thousand. Why? Likely these short positions among 13f filers are simply there to protect themselves on the downside. Why so few Calls being sold? Would you sell covered Calls on an asset that you know is going up? No, but you would protect yourself on the downside – which is precisely what the smart money is doing. They are grabbing this stock hand over fist and this trend will likely accelerate as money managers look for places to put their money. I think realistically the market cap for Drive Shack could end up between $1-2B in the next 18 months, perhaps higher. This is simply based on the number of Puttery’s and Drive Shack venues they intend to open and the accelerating trend of people getting back out into the world in the wake of the Rona. This could also be an M&A target as the market cap grows. The market will soon begin to price in this expansion quickly as the economy reopens. A market cap of $2B implies a Drive Shack share price of $12-18 dollars. The Rona Factor New COVID infection numbers are declining in the US. New treatments and therapeutics are coming out every day. In the US, it looks like this summer may get close to resembling something that we remember as “normal”. In short, there is massive pent up demand for this kind of leisure activity. Have you ever driven by a Topgolf? At least where I am they are always packed. I’ve been myself several times and while it’s not exactly my thing, people throw money at this without hesitation. People are tired of being on lock down. The next 6-18 months in the US are going to see an explosion of interest in these kinds of leisure related activities as the virus fades into a distant memory. I believe this pick is most interesting as both a reopening and growth play. Latest Earnings Drive Shack Jumps 18% As 4Q Earnings Exceed Estimates | Nasdaq The stock has been on fire as of late. Why? Drive Shack's earnings announced on 3/12/2021 of $0.13 per share compared favorably with the year-ago period's loss of $0.25 per share. Analysts were expecting a loss of $0.19 per share. Revenues of $60.3 million topped the Street’s estimates of $55.7 million but declined 16% year-on-year, mainly due to lower revenues from the company’s four entertainment Drive Shack golf venues amid COVID-19 restrictions which led to lower event revenue. Nevertheless, the company said, “The strong momentum and demand for traditional golf continued for American Golf throughout the fourth quarter of 2020.” From the CEO on the last earnings call, “As we look ahead into 2021, our focus remains on strategic priorities to drive growth and profitability, including the launch and expansion of Puttery, capturing market share using data and analytics, growing brand awareness and advancing technology and innovation to remain at the forefront in our space. With our currently liquidity position and relatively unlevered balance sheet, we can maintain flexibility and optimize our capital stricture to be better positioned to react to future business needs. We believe 2021 will be a momentous year for us that is carried by a team that sets us apart and will drive us forward.” Key takeaway: 2021 will be a “momentous” year. Upcoming earnings This is where the stock could really take off. The next scheduled earnings date is 5/5/2021 to 5/10/2021. Most of their locations have had to deal with capacity limitations and other Rona related shutdowns. Revenue and earnings numbers will likely be impressive when they next report earnings. All of their locations will be at or near full reopening’s as COVID shutdowns begin to wind down. They will also likely make announcements regarding the upcoming Puttery rollouts. This will put further upward pressure on the stock price. New Analyst Coverage The number of analyst and boutiques that track a stock can have a significant impact on price direction. Let’s have a look at the number of analysts currently covering Drive Shack: Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/yHrknQD Now let’s compare that to $ELY (Topgolf): Supplemental Exhibit: https://imgur.com/md6m8LI As we can see, the analyst coverage for $ELY is significantly higher than Drive Shack. Over time, the increased analyst coverage has pushed $ELY much higher. As new analysts begin to initiate coverage on Drive Shack and add their price targets, it will put further upward pressure on the stock price. The current analyst price target for Drive Shack is over $5. Institutional investors will therefore become more interested and the market cap will continue to grow. When a respected analyst simply initiates coverage on a stock it can often itself serve as a catalyst to push a stock price ever higher. I believe the coverage on Drive Shack will increase significantly in the coming months. Drive Shack Jumps 18% As 4Q Earnings Exceed Estimates. Of particular note, “BTIG analyst Peter Saleh maintained a Buy rating and a price target of $5 (59.2% upside potential) on the stock. In a note to investors, the analyst said that despite soft sales, the company recorded “materially better than expected” earnings in 4Q. Looking ahead, Saleh expects cost-savings measures to continue to drive EBITDA growth as COVID-19 restrictions ease.” In Conclusion Drive Shack is a stock that has primarily traded well above $4 since 2013. The Rona has significantly depressed the price of this asset. Institutional money has been flowing rapidly into this company. The smart money already knows where the price is headed. As lockdowns begin to lift and COVID infections/death rates plummet in the US, people will be desperate for leisure activities within the US. Boozy golf is the medicine everyone needs. This trend in behavior will likely push the stock price well above $7 in the next 6-9 months. If the Puttery concept proves successful, this stock will be trading above $10 quickly. I will try and update progress on my $DS positions periodically.   submitted by   /u/GoodVibesWow [link]   [comments]
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  3. SPPI ???????????? some DD on this South Korean biotech’s fat duse (05/06/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    SPPI (Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) $3.95 (6/4/21) Market Cap over $554 million Average Volume over 2.8 million This DD will focus on SPPI’s phase 3 drug Rolontis. SPPI filed for its BLA in December of 2019 with a PFUDA date in October 2020. At that time, the FDA informed the company that an inspection of SPPI’s Hanmi Bioplant was required before they could approve the BLA. However, travel restrictions due to the ‘Rona pandemic prevented this inspection from occurring. Only until March of this year did the FDA schedule a pre-approval inspection in May and along with encouraging news of another SPPI drug Poziotinib in Phase 2 (not discussed here), it was announced on June 1 that the FDA was on site in Hanmi and the inspection had been initiated. Now why does this matter? Let a pacifier puffing baby in a crib enlighten you, if for only a moment. Rolontis treats chemotherapy-induced neutropenia. Cancer patients are often treated with chemotherapy. Chemotherapy, as you may know, often kills healthy cells along with the actual cancerous cells in one’s body. Some of these healthy cells that are killed are white blood cells. Having fewer than normal white blood cells is known as Neutropenia. White blood cells are essential for protection against foreign germs and therefore with fewer in the bloodstream, patients with Neutropenia are more susceptible to infection. A study done between 2009 and 2011 on 291 gynecological cancer patients, of whom the average age was 60, found that chemotherapy induced Neutropenia occurred in 50.5% of the patients. Each year, about 650,000 people are treated with chemotherapy and in 2012, over 100,000 people with cancer were hospitalized due to Neutropenia. Neutropenia can be fatal as well. On average, 4000 die each year of neutropenia with fever. Rolontis has proven more effective than the existing treatment, Pegfilgrastim, in treating neutropenia. The actual efficacy of Rolontis can be read from a publication that is linked below that I will not even attempt to translate. I, in agreement with Lee Schwartzberg smarty pants, foresee Rolontis improving supportive care for patients undergoing chemotherapy. I also foresee with my undeveloped mind that SPPI will consequently bring in that dough. This is of course not financial advice, no matter what the Karen’s think. I am simply a kid in a crib with unwieldy access to the internet. Rolontis, its efficacy and superiority over Pegfilgrastim: https://www.sppirx.com/338-spectrum-products-development-rolontis.html https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/spectrum-pharmaceuticals-announces-integrated-results-from-two-phase-3-rolontis-eflapegrastim-trials-being-presented-at-the-asco-annual-meeting/ Relevance and study of neutropenia: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4588600/ https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/articles/neutropenia.htm https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/preventinfections/providers.htm   submitted by   /u/Manlius_Torquatus [link]   [comments]
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  4. Regaining Control of Your Trading Plan (03/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Hi all, I was inspired by the choppy market action to do a write up on losing control when you trade. It's extracted from my blog (no self promote, no links or sneaky sheet), maybe it resonates with you: It's about losing and regaining control on the holy grail of trading YOUR trading plan: What Happens When we Lose Control. I posted this in Daytrading but the exact same applies for investors or long term traders. Many destructive emotions or situations stir up feelings associated with loss of control. Some examples of what's happened to me in the past: You buy a stock, it goes down, you sell it to avoid losing money and it literally goes back up the next second, so you jump back in and it goes down again! Essentially, you are trying to control whether or not you make money. The obvious problem here - you don't control price. This is probably one of the most common root causes of over-trading. And comes down to a few things: You do not have a trading plan that you understand Emotions are acted on instantly Fear is in the passenger seat and you are trying to gain control of your emotions Your current system doesn't suit your personality Trading is so full of paradoxes it would make you sick to your stomach, in fact, it does make some people literally sick to their stomach. The very need for control and our primitive brain is basically wired to stop us from making money. Admitting we don't know where a stock will go is the first step to recovery, and a long road it is. Example 2 (Based on the above): Holding onto losses in order to avoid the pain of "loss". There are many terms for this, for more info you can look into the disposition effect. Here we have the metamorphosis of a "trader", someone who always tells you when they are winning to an "investor", someone who holds shit stocks while they tank. Again, this ties into control (and ego) which quite frankly are like peas in a pod and feed from one another. By trying to control the outcome of a trade, we find all sorts of ways to really fuck up our trading strategy in all sorts of creative ways. The very things we try to avoid, which in "normal life can be easy", in the stock market, are impossible. If your wife/husband asks you if you look fat, you can tell a white lie. If a stock goes down and you own it, no lie will bail you out. The stock market doesn't give a shit about how much money we make or lose, it's totally objective. Therefore, saying it's "rigged" or "manipulated" is totally irrelevant because it is rigged for all of us with few exceptions. What we Can't Control The reality of trading in terms of control is simple. It's much better to avoid things we can't control as the energy expended in this way removes focus from what we can control. Very easy to say but the long term impact will be successful trading or mediocre trading. As it turns out, we can't actually control the entire world - who would have thought! Some examples: If a stock goes up or down Black Swan events #Rona-19, 2008 How much the central bank prints or doesn't print How governments will react to certain situations Anything to do with the news If country A decides to bomb country B People (long term) Interest rates Ironically, the things outside of our control are what freak us out of positions, push us into making rash buying or selling decisions and trigger our fight or flight reactions and derail any half-decent trading plan. I will openly admit I spend too much time on what I can't control. When it comes to people, stressful situations and even macro-economics. It is very hard to drown out the inputs from social media, friends, family and others. Even worse still is to avoid holding strong opinions on all of the So What Can we Control All is not lost though. If we could not control any variables in our stock market endeavors it would be pretty damn pointless to trade. The ingredients for success are truly found in the decisions we make in relation to: When we buy a stock When we sell a stock What strategy we decide upon Our environment How much of whatever we buy or sell The types of things we decide to watch, listen to and or read The people we surround ourselves with The daily habits we create around trading Keeping a trading journal Trading reviews The significant difference between what we can and can't control is this little thing called effort. It takes significant effort to find, test, understand and lose money when we start trading, the learning curve really can't be understated. Even worse, those who do well initially end up getting ruined because the precedent is set that "this is easy". That lack of experience always catches up, be it in stocks or any other pursuit. This is the Dunning Kruger effect in action. Having logged my trades for a number of years, many patterns show up and repeat themselves most notably in times of duress. For me personally this included the following - for which I now am 100% accountable. Buying too soon, usually due to FOMO Selling too soon, usually due to fear Buying on tips from Twitter and friends - the worst of the worst, I still fall for this one Not taking trades out of fear These are just a few which were underpinned by one major theme: not following my trading plan. Sure, I still have my days and even months where I have lost control of my process and am tired, sick of everything and slip up. Yes of course, it costs me money every time and if you think I have down days because of it - you are absolutely correct. The real difference now is I know where I am going wrong, that I can improve it and make serious money trading stocks in the long run. I know what I can and can not control. It all starts with having a clear plan, a very understandable unambiguous trading system, tons of real trades and a meticulous journal to keep track of where you are winning and losing. Over time, taking these lessons and reshaping habits, patterns and hang-ups to eventually become consistent and eventually have it down to a performance art. The apex of these points is total control over what you do during the trading day, how you can manage your emotion and execute that trading plan. The ability to follow this plan and learn from will either create or destroy potential traders, especially in the long run. Very long post, sorry - I hope it helps!   submitted by   /u/shootermgavin_crypto [link]   [comments]
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  5. My Opinion - Is The Stock Market Going To Crash Again In 2021? Should You Buy Stocks Today? Stock Market v Yields & Jobs | Zoom & Nio Opinion (15/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Hey there folks! Today I want to talk to you about what’s really going on in the stock market and what we should expected next… So, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen a very fast correction in the tech heavy Nasdaq Index after the bond yields rapidly spiked over 1.5% for the 10y, as a lot of investors kept getting spooked by the employment numbers coming in slightly better than expected, though many important things are still hidden in those numbers. For example, last week we saw the US gaining almost 400K jobs, but this barely moved the unemployment rate which still stands at 6.2% (and this doesn’t even include people who just quit searching for jobs). Almost all of the job gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has started to regain some momentum after it was the most affected by the events of last year, as this sector is still down more than 3.5M jobs since a year ago. These past weeks we also saw jobless claims continuing to go down, with the latest initial jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since last early last year at just over 700K, as the continuing jobless claims also coming in at just over 4.1M. But guys, regardless of the jobs & unemployment numbers, the main thing that will keep investors on edge will continue to be treasury yields, the interest rates and how this are affected by the inflation numbers which are expected to see a huge bump in the next months as we will have very low comps compared to last year when we saw the rona starting to pick up steam. We can see here the core inflation came lower this month with an increase of just .1% which jolted the stock market and started a recovery after the sell-off in the past weeks. Given that tech names & EVs were some of the biggest hit stocks we should also take a quick look at NIO, as the company lost almost half of its value in the past month, dropping from over $66 to just $35 after the big sell off in the past weeks. NIO’s drop was also amplified probably by the fact that they posted mixed results for the 4th quarter of last year, as they just missed the top line but did manage to post a solid beat on the company’s bottom line, losing just $0.14/share. Investors might not have been happy to see a guidance of just 15% above their 4th quarter given the huge valuation and expectations of the company and the huge global chip shortage that will limit NIO’s production capacity to just 7.5K in the 2nd quarter of 2021. I still have a mixed opinion about NIO’s stock, but after this huge sell-off, it has become more attractive given the continued growth of sales the company has seen in the last years, while I also believe NIO will remain one of the winners of the EV disruption. The other stock that I wanted to mention after what has happened in the past weeks is Zoom. I really like Zoom’s products and I understand the hype of the stock, but I also really believe they will struggle to keep the huge growth rate going, as the company might have seen its peak growth after the massive work-from-home movement in 2020. Zoom also reported a beat on the top & bottom line and I expect them to continue to have another great first half to start 2021, but after that, the company will have very though comps to go against, which might really put some downward pressure on the stock, especially as more people go back to their workplaces. You can see, even the company doesn’t expect the huge growth to continue, with the revenue growth expected to only slightly continue to grow during 2021. Zoom is valued at almost $100B which is really hard to justify unless the company continues to innovate and bring more & more products to the market, as the industry they operate in will only become more competitive over time with other big players like Google, Microsoft, Salesforce & many others looking to take market share. Guys, if you are still in doubt about what to do next in the stock market, you should just take a look at the chart below and start thinking long term, because investing, if you are really looking to make money is all about the long-term. You can see HERE in the past 100 years we've had 8 bear markets previous to the one we saw in 2020, with the average bear market lasting just 1.4years compared to over 9 years for every bull market with a staggering difference in gains vs losses as well. We can also see in this chart that it only took 15 days for the Nasdaq to enter a 10% correction this time, but you can see the average 12 month return after a 10% correction is almost 30% which is huge, with the likelihood of the index posting a positive return in the next 12 months standing at over 90% So, given that we had a bear market last year, I believe it’s highly unlikely that we will see a huge drop in stocks even if yields continue to rise, as the real return of the treasury yields will continue to be close to 0, as I don’t expect them to jump more than 2% for the 10y anytime soon. Moving on, I recently saw some comments made by David Tepper which I wasn’t really aware of but which made a lot of sense to me, he highlighted that the other downward pressure put on treasury yields, which will keep them in check, will come from investors in other countries like Japan, Germany & many others, as the US treasuries have become way more attractive than others. One other thing that I think should be mentioned is that the Dow Jones has continued to make new high after new high in the past week, being led by companies like Disney which has just surpassed 100M subscribers on their Disney+ platform while also getting a boost from their other revenue streams starting to come back online, and of course the stock that has led the DOW in the past week, Boeing, as the company had more sales than cancellations for the first time since November 2019 as the 737 MAX crisis is finally starting to fade away for the company, with even more possible deals likely to close in the next period, as airlines start to have a better view of what the future will bring for them. Friends, you shouldn’t be scared of stock market corrections or dips as we have seen a 10% pullback once every 11 months as you can see, with the frequency of bigger crashes decreasing significantly, but as always, because we are highly emotional beings, it’s very hard for us to handle our emotions after a series of red days. You should remember though, most often than not, the best way to go is just to ride out the dip and even starting deploying more cash into the stock market the more it drops. I think you should develop a strategy of not selling on big red days and deploying an increasingly higher % of your cash into great stocks the more the stock market drops. I also fully expect some part of the next stimulus check, which was just signed by Biden, to end up in the stock market, which might help push the stock market on the right path despite increasing pressures from rising yields and possible short-term inflation fears. So just to end this post guys, is the stock market going to crash? My short answer is NO! I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. Even if we continue to see volatility in the stock market you should use that to your advantage and smartly deploy cash into great companies, which leads me to my other question, should you buy stocks today? Well, at the moment of writing this post, futures are currently trending down pre-market (SP & Nasdaq in the Red, Dow +0.2%) and If they continue to do so it might be a good chance to deploy some cash, but don’t rush into the first red day you see, slowly build your positions or add to them. As a rule of thumb, I like to buy more once a 5% dip occurs in the stock market and slowly deploy cash the more it drops. Thank you everyone for reading???? Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time?   submitted by   /u/0toHeroInvesting [link]   [comments]
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  6. Is The Stock Market Going To Crash Again In 2021? Should You Buy Stocks Today? Stock Market v Yields & Jobs | Zoom & Nio Opinion (15/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Hey there folks! Today I want to talk to you about what’s really going on in the stock market and what we should expected next… [Don't: Read Very Long Post | Dislike Before Reading] So, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen a very fast correction in the tech heavy Nasdaq Index after the bond yields rapidly spiked over 1.5% for the 10y, as a lot of investors kept getting spooked by the employment numbers coming in slightly better than expected, though many important things are still hidden in those numbers. For example, last week we saw the US gaining almost 400K jobs, but this barely moved the unemployment rate which still stands at 6.2% (and this doesn’t even include people who just quit searching for jobs). Almost all of the job gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has started to regain some momentum after it was the most affected by the events of last year, as this sector is still down more than 3.5M jobs since a year ago. These past weeks we also saw jobless claims continuing to go down, with the latest initial jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since last early last year at just over 700K, as the continuing jobless claims also coming in at just over 4.1M. But guys, regardless of the jobs & unemployment numbers, the main thing that will keep investors on edge will continue to be treasury yields, the interest rates and how this are affected by the inflation numbers which are expected to see a huge bump in the next months as we will have very low comps compared to last year when we saw the rona starting to pick up steam. We can see here the core inflation came lower this month with an increase of just .1% which jolted the stock market and started a recovery after the sell-off in the past weeks. Given that tech names & EVs were some of the biggest hit stocks we should also take a quick look at NIO, as the company lost almost half of its value in the past month, dropping from over $66 to just $35 after the big sell off in the past weeks. NIO’s drop was also amplified probably by the fact that they posted mixed results for the 4th quarter of last year, as they just missed the top line but did manage to post a solid beat on the company’s bottom line, losing just $0.14/share. Investors might not have been happy to see a guidance of just 15% above their 4th quarter given the huge valuation and expectations of the company and the huge global chip shortage that will limit NIO’s production capacity to just 7.5K in the 2nd quarter of 2021. I still have a mixed opinion about NIO’s stock, but after this huge sell-off, it has become more attractive given the continued growth of sales the company has seen in the last years, while I also believe NIO will remain one of the winners of the EV disruption. The other stock that I wanted to mention after what has happened in the past weeks is Zoom. I really like Zoom’s products and I understand the hype of the stock, but I also really believe they will struggle to keep the huge growth rate going, as the company might have seen its peak growth after the massive work-from-home movement in 2020. Zoom also reported a beat on the top & bottom line and I expect them to continue to have another great first half to start 2021, but after that, the company will have very though comps to go against, which might really put some downward pressure on the stock, especially as more people go back to their workplaces. You can see, even the company doesn’t expect the huge growth to continue, with the revenue growth expected to only slightly continue to grow during 2021. Zoom is valued at almost $100B which is really hard to justify unless the company continues to innovate and bring more & more products to the market, as the industry they operate in will only become more competitive over time with other big players like Google, Microsoft, Salesforce & many others looking to take market share. Guys, if you are still in doubt about what to do next in the stock market, you should just take a look at the chart below and start thinking long term, because investing, if you are really looking to make money is all about the long-term. You can see HERE in the past 100 years we've had 8 bear markets previous to the one we saw in 2020, with the average bear market lasting just 1.4years compared to over 9 years for every bull market with a staggering difference in gains vs losses as well. We can also see in this chart that it only took 15 days for the Nasdaq to enter a 10% correction this time, but you can see the average 12 month return after a 10% correction is almost 30% which is huge, with the likelihood of the index posting a positive return in the next 12 months standing at over 90% So, given that we had a bear market last year, I believe it’s highly unlikely that we will see a huge drop in stocks even if yields continue to rise, as the real return of the treasury yields will continue to be close to 0, as I don’t expect them to jump more than 2% for the 10y anytime soon. Moving on, I recently saw some comments made by David Tepper which I wasn’t really aware of but which made a lot of sense to me, he highlighted that the other downward pressure put on treasury yields, which will keep them in check, will come from investors in other countries like Japan, Germany & many others, as the US treasuries have become way more attractive than others. One other thing that I think should be mentioned is that the Dow Jones has continued to make new high after new high in the past week, being led by companies like Disney which has just surpassed 100M subscribers on their Disney+ platform while also getting a boost from their other revenue streams starting to come back online, and of course the stock that has led the DOW in the past week, Boeing, as the company had more sales than cancellations for the first time since November 2019 as the 737 MAX crisis is finally starting to fade away for the company, with even more possible deals likely to close in the next period, as airlines start to have a better view of what the future will bring for them. Friends, you shouldn’t be scared of stock market corrections or dips as we have seen a 10% pullback once every 11 months as you can see, with the frequency of bigger crashes decreasing significantly, but as always, because we are highly emotional beings, it’s very hard for us to handle our emotions after a series of red days. You should remember though, most often than not, the best way to go is just to ride out the dip and even starting deploying more cash into the stock market the more it drops. I think you should develop a strategy of not selling on big red days and deploying an increasingly higher % of your cash into great stocks the more the stock market drops. I also fully expect some part of the next stimulus check, which was just signed by Biden, to end up in the stock market, which might help push the stock market on the right path despite increasing pressures from rising yields and possible short-term inflation fears. So just to end this post guys, is the stock market going to crash? My short answer is NO! I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. Even if we continue to see volatility in the stock market you should use that to your advantage and smartly deploy cash into great companies, which leads me to my other question, should you buy stocks today? Well, at the moment of writing this post, futures are currently trending down pre-market (SP & Nasdaq in the Red, Dow +0.2%) and If they continue to do so it might be a good chance to deploy some cash, but don’t rush into the first red day you see, slowly build your positions or add to them. As a rule of thumb, I like to buy more once a 5% dip occurs in the stock market and slowly deploy cash the more it drops. Thank you everyone for reading???? Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time?   submitted by   /u/0toHeroInvesting [link]   [comments]
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  7. My Opinion - Is The Stock Market Going To Crash Again In 2021? Should You Buy Stocks Today? Stock Market v Yields & Jobs | Zoom & Nio Opinion (15/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Hey there folks! Today I want to talk to you about what’s really going on in the stock market and what we should expected next… [Don't Read/Dislike Before Reading - Very Long Post] So, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen a very fast correction in the tech heavy Nasdaq Index after the bond yields rapidly spiked over 1.5% for the 10y, as a lot of investors kept getting spooked by the employment numbers coming in slightly better than expected, though many important things are still hidden in those numbers. For example, last week we saw the US gaining almost 400K jobs, but this barely moved the unemployment rate which still stands at 6.2% (and this doesn’t even include people who just quit searching for jobs). Almost all of the job gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has started to regain some momentum after it was the most affected by the events of last year, as this sector is still down more than 3.5M jobs since a year ago. These past weeks we also saw jobless claims continuing to go down, with the latest initial jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since last early last year at just over 700K, as the continuing jobless claims also coming in at just over 4.1M. But guys, regardless of the jobs & unemployment numbers, the main thing that will keep investors on edge will continue to be treasury yields, the interest rates and how this are affected by the inflation numbers which are expected to see a huge bump in the next months as we will have very low comps compared to last year when we saw the rona starting to pick up steam. We can see here the core inflation came lower this month with an increase of just .1% which jolted the stock market and started a recovery after the sell-off in the past weeks. Given that tech names & EVs were some of the biggest hit stocks we should also take a quick look at NIO, as the company lost almost half of its value in the past month, dropping from over $66 to just $35 after the big sell off in the past weeks. NIO’s drop was also amplified probably by the fact that they posted mixed results for the 4th quarter of last year, as they just missed the top line but did manage to post a solid beat on the company’s bottom line, losing just $0.14/share. Investors might not have been happy to see a guidance of just 15% above their 4th quarter given the huge valuation and expectations of the company and the huge global chip shortage that will limit NIO’s production capacity to just 7.5K in the 2nd quarter of 2021. I still have a mixed opinion about NIO’s stock, but after this huge sell-off, it has become more attractive given the continued growth of sales the company has seen in the last years, while I also believe NIO will remain one of the winners of the EV disruption. The other stock that I wanted to mention after what has happened in the past weeks is Zoom. I really like Zoom’s products and I understand the hype of the stock, but I also really believe they will struggle to keep the huge growth rate going, as the company might have seen its peak growth after the massive work-from-home movement in 2020. Zoom also reported a beat on the top & bottom line and I expect them to continue to have another great first half to start 2021, but after that, the company will have very though comps to go against, which might really put some downward pressure on the stock, especially as more people go back to their workplaces. You can see, even the company doesn’t expect the huge growth to continue, with the revenue growth expected to only slightly continue to grow during 2021. Zoom is valued at almost $100B which is really hard to justify unless the company continues to innovate and bring more & more products to the market, as the industry they operate in will only become more competitive over time with other big players like Google, Microsoft, Salesforce & many others looking to take market share. Guys, if you are still in doubt about what to do next in the stock market, you should just take a look at the chart below and start thinking long term, because investing, if you are really looking to make money is all about the long-term. You can see HERE in the past 100 years we've had 8 bear markets previous to the one we saw in 2020, with the average bear market lasting just 1.4years compared to over 9 years for every bull market with a staggering difference in gains vs losses as well. We can also see in this chart that it only took 15 days for the Nasdaq to enter a 10% correction this time, but you can see the average 12 month return after a 10% correction is almost 30% which is huge, with the likelihood of the index posting a positive return in the next 12 months standing at over 90% So, given that we had a bear market last year, I believe it’s highly unlikely that we will see a huge drop in stocks even if yields continue to rise, as the real return of the treasury yields will continue to be close to 0, as I don’t expect them to jump more than 2% for the 10y anytime soon. Moving on, I recently saw some comments made by David Tepper which I wasn’t really aware of but which made a lot of sense to me, he highlighted that the other downward pressure put on treasury yields, which will keep them in check, will come from investors in other countries like Japan, Germany & many others, as the US treasuries have become way more attractive than others. One other thing that I think should be mentioned is that the Dow Jones has continued to make new high after new high in the past week, being led by companies like Disney which has just surpassed 100M subscribers on their Disney+ platform while also getting a boost from their other revenue streams starting to come back online, and of course the stock that has led the DOW in the past week, Boeing, as the company had more sales than cancellations for the first time since November 2019 as the 737 MAX crisis is finally starting to fade away for the company, with even more possible deals likely to close in the next period, as airlines start to have a better view of what the future will bring for them. Friends, you shouldn’t be scared of stock market corrections or dips as we have seen a 10% pullback once every 11 months as you can see, with the frequency of bigger crashes decreasing significantly, but as always, because we are highly emotional beings, it’s very hard for us to handle our emotions after a series of red days. You should remember though, most often than not, the best way to go is just to ride out the dip and even starting deploying more cash into the stock market the more it drops. I think you should develop a strategy of not selling on big red days and deploying an increasingly higher % of your cash into great stocks the more the stock market drops. I also fully expect some part of the next stimulus check, which was just signed by Biden, to end up in the stock market, which might help push the stock market on the right path despite increasing pressures from rising yields and possible short-term inflation fears. So just to end this post guys, is the stock market going to crash? My short answer is NO! I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. Even if we continue to see volatility in the stock market you should use that to your advantage and smartly deploy cash into great companies, which leads me to my other question, should you buy stocks today? Well, at the moment of writing this post, futures are currently trending down pre-market (SP & Nasdaq in the Red, Dow +0.2%) and If they continue to do so it might be a good chance to deploy some cash, but don’t rush into the first red day you see, slowly build your positions or add to them. As a rule of thumb, I like to buy more once a 5% dip occurs in the stock market and slowly deploy cash the more it drops. Thank you everyone for reading???? Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time?   submitted by   /u/0toHeroInvesting [link]   [comments]
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