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06 August 2021
05:01 hour

My Opinion - Is The Stock Market Going To Crash Again In 2021? Should You Buy Stocks Today? Stock Market v Yields & Jobs | Zoom & Nio Opinion

Reddit Stock Market

15/03/2021 - 13:32

Hey there folks! Today I want to talk to you about what’s really going on in the stock market and what we should expected next… [Don't Read/Dislike Before Reading - Very Long Post] So, in the last couple of weeks, we have seen a very fast correction in the tech heavy Nasdaq Index after the bond yields rapidly spiked over 1.5% for the 10y, as a lot of investors kept getting spooked by the employment numbers coming in slightly better than expected, though many important things are still hidden in those numbers. For example, last week we saw the US gaining almost 400K jobs, but this barely moved the unemployment rate which still stands at 6.2% (and this doesn’t even include people who just quit searching for jobs). Almost all of the job gains were seen in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has started to regain some momentum after it was the most affected by the events of last year, as this sector is still down more than 3.5M jobs since a year ago. These past weeks we also saw jobless claims continuing to go down, with the latest initial jobless claims coming in at the lowest level since last early last year at just over 700K, as the continuing jobless claims also coming in at just over 4.1M. But guys, regardless of the jobs & unemployment numbers, the main thing that will keep investors on edge will continue to be treasury yields, the interest rates and how this are affected by the inflation numbers which are expected to see a huge bump in the next months as we will have very low comps compared to last year when we saw the rona starting to pick up steam. We can see here the core inflation came lower this month with an increase of just .1% which jolted the stock market and started a recovery after the sell-off in the past weeks. Given that tech names & EVs were some of the biggest hit stocks we should also take a quick look at NIO, as the company lost almost half of its value in the past month, dropping from over $66 to just $35 after the big sell off in the past weeks. NIO’s drop was also amplified probably by the fact that they posted mixed results for the 4th quarter of last year, as they just missed the top line but did manage to post a solid beat on the company’s bottom line, losing just $0.14/share. Investors might not have been happy to see a guidance of just 15% above their 4th quarter given the huge valuation and expectations of the company and the huge global chip shortage that will limit NIO’s production capacity to just 7.5K in the 2nd quarter of 2021. I still have a mixed opinion about NIO’s stock, but after this huge sell-off, it has become more attractive given the continued growth of sales the company has seen in the last years, while I also believe NIO will remain one of the winners of the EV disruption. The other stock that I wanted to mention after what has happened in the past weeks is Zoom. I really like Zoom’s products and I understand the hype of the stock, but I also really believe they will struggle to keep the huge growth rate going, as the company might have seen its peak growth after the massive work-from-home movement in 2020. Zoom also reported a beat on the top & bottom line and I expect them to continue to have another great first half to start 2021, but after that, the company will have very though comps to go against, which might really put some downward pressure on the stock, especially as more people go back to their workplaces. You can see, even the company doesn’t expect the huge growth to continue, with the revenue growth expected to only slightly continue to grow during 2021. Zoom is valued at almost $100B which is really hard to justify unless the company continues to innovate and bring more & more products to the market, as the industry they operate in will only become more competitive over time with other big players like Google, Microsoft, Salesforce & many others looking to take market share. Guys, if you are still in doubt about what to do next in the stock market, you should just take a look at the chart below and start thinking long term, because investing, if you are really looking to make money is all about the long-term. You can see HERE in the past 100 years we've had 8 bear markets previous to the one we saw in 2020, with the average bear market lasting just 1.4years compared to over 9 years for every bull market with a staggering difference in gains vs losses as well. We can also see in this chart that it only took 15 days for the Nasdaq to enter a 10% correction this time, but you can see the average 12 month return after a 10% correction is almost 30% which is huge, with the likelihood of the index posting a positive return in the next 12 months standing at over 90% So, given that we had a bear market last year, I believe it’s highly unlikely that we will see a huge drop in stocks even if yields continue to rise, as the real return of the treasury yields will continue to be close to 0, as I don’t expect them to jump more than 2% for the 10y anytime soon. Moving on, I recently saw some comments made by David Tepper which I wasn’t really aware of but which made a lot of sense to me, he highlighted that the other downward pressure put on treasury yields, which will keep them in check, will come from investors in other countries like Japan, Germany & many others, as the US treasuries have become way more attractive than others. One other thing that I think should be mentioned is that the Dow Jones has continued to make new high after new high in the past week, being led by companies like Disney which has just surpassed 100M subscribers on their Disney+ platform while also getting a boost from their other revenue streams starting to come back online, and of course the stock that has led the DOW in the past week, Boeing, as the company had more sales than cancellations for the first time since November 2019 as the 737 MAX crisis is finally starting to fade away for the company, with even more possible deals likely to close in the next period, as airlines start to have a better view of what the future will bring for them. Friends, you shouldn’t be scared of stock market corrections or dips as we have seen a 10% pullback once every 11 months as you can see, with the frequency of bigger crashes decreasing significantly, but as always, because we are highly emotional beings, it’s very hard for us to handle our emotions after a series of red days. You should remember though, most often than not, the best way to go is just to ride out the dip and even starting deploying more cash into the stock market the more it drops. I think you should develop a strategy of not selling on big red days and deploying an increasingly higher % of your cash into great stocks the more the stock market drops. I also fully expect some part of the next stimulus check, which was just signed by Biden, to end up in the stock market, which might help push the stock market on the right path despite increasing pressures from rising yields and possible short-term inflation fears. So just to end this post guys, is the stock market going to crash? My short answer is NO! I don’t expect that to happen any time soon. Even if we continue to see volatility in the stock market you should use that to your advantage and smartly deploy cash into great companies, which leads me to my other question, should you buy stocks today? Well, at the moment of writing this post, futures are currently trending down pre-market (SP & Nasdaq in the Red, Dow +0.2%) and If they continue to do so it might be a good chance to deploy some cash, but don’t rush into the first red day you see, slowly build your positions or add to them. As a rule of thumb, I like to buy more once a 5% dip occurs in the stock market and slowly deploy cash the more it drops. Thank you everyone for reading???? Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time?   submitted by   /u/0toHeroInvesting [link]   [comments]


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    What is your opinion about Baidu, the Chinese AI company (does search engines, software for connected smart devices, etc.) ? As someone beginning to work in the field, I am impressed by the number of research and great innovations that came out of this company, that seems to gather some of the best talents of machine learning in China and the world. However, their stock does not reflect what my personal opinion of its value is, for sure its financials are way weaker than its American counterpart Google (can you really do as good ?) but still it is announcing great news and partnerships and breakthroughs plus the Chinese market is the fastest growing by far with the new middle class forming, so my question is: am I missing something big that makes it not so much of a good move ? What is your opinion ?   submitted by   /u/Foufou190 [link]   [comments]
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  25. I like Amazon but it's expensive (06/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I understand no one can 100% predict stocks. But can someone give me an informed opinion of when they would advise to invest into amazon to get the most bang for my buck or correct my understanding of their p/e ratio and market cap, and how to use this info. I have some bad luck ATM I invest in small amounts as practice then that stock just drops lol, I'm afraid Amazon gonna do that to me as well. Yes I understand nothing is linear straight line. At this time Market cap = 1.85T P/E ratio = 66.816 Volume = 5m I understand what the definitions of market cap, p/e, etc, but not how to apply them because of this for example, "The P/E ratio can be used to compare two or more companies. This can be useful given that a company’s stock price, in and of itself, tells you nothing about the company’s overall valuation." So how do you tell if a stock (amazon) is over valued, or you can't that's why the stock market is a gamble?   submitted by   /u/SnacksRLife [link]   [comments]
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  26. Market Extra: Why the stock market keeps climbing after a surprisingly weak jobs report (07/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    It may take more than a much-weaker-than-expected April jobs report to kill the stock market rally, though the popular reflation trade is seeing a modest setback.
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  27. Am I potentially contributing to a market crash by owning GME stock? (17/04/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    I tried posting this in a GME specific subreddit, but didn’t receive the best response and want a more unbiased opinion. I own just a few shares of GME stock, but am getting concerned that I am contributing to something that will ultimately lead to a crash in the economy similar to 2008. I understand that what Citadel and other major HF are doing, and have been doing, is grossly illegal and unethical. However, from what I have been reading the past few days it seems like if GME sky rockets it will cause a major disruption to some of the major financial institutions and could potential domino effect into a recession similar to 2008. I started getting more concerned once I saw that BofA, Goldman, and JP issued billions in bonds, and tbh that frightens me and made me really concerned that it may signal something big coming soon in a bad way for the stock market. If you remove the unique scenario with GME would what Citadel, big banks, and any other players are doing still result in this type of economic turmoil in the near term? Am i wearing a tinfoil hat by even thinking this is as big of an issue as I’m making it? I just don’t know if I morally justify profiting off something that led to potentially millions of people being financially destroyed. In 2008 my parents, and so many other family members and friends, lost half their 401ks, houses, jobs and so much more. I don’t want to participate in something that could cause that level of hurt.   submitted by   /u/BabaYetu2014 [link]   [comments]
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  28. Stock Market Isn't Overvalued - Bond Rates at all time lows, Stimulus coming (27/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    1st point: Recently did some research for a college course where I analyzed the Buffett Indicator. For those unfamiliar with the metric, it divides total stock market cap by current US GDP. According to Indicator, the market is overvalued higher than it ever has been. However, if you calculate the correlation between the 10-Year US Treasury bond and the Buffett Indicator over the last 50 years, they are negatively correlated with a coefficient of -.9 (-1 would be perfectly inversely related). Basically, when bond yields are low, the Buffett Indicator (and stock valuations) are higher. If you look at the data from the ".com" bubble in 2000, bond interest rates were still at 6% (average for last 50 years) which means low yields weren't what was juicing the market. We are not in a similar situation as back then. Currently, bond yields are at all time lows and investors have no choice but to put money into stocks if they want a decent return. As low as rates remain at all time lows, the stock market isn't about to crash. 2nd point: More stimulus checks are on the way. While there are many Americans that need this stimulus for everyday expenses, there are also millions of financially stable people who will be getting the stimulus even though that don't need it. Where do you think all this money will be going? If I had to bet it's mostly going into the stock market. Summary - Quit listening to fear mongers talking like the market is about the crash. Even if it corrects 10%-20% we will be fine. The data backs this up. The best time to invest for the long term is and always will be right now. Get in the market and dollar-cost average is it starts to fall (which I don't see a major fall happening until bond rates increase significantly). Current Market Valuation - Buffett Indicator   submitted by   /u/Healthy-Cash8610 [link]   [comments]
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  29. Why I don't believe the market will crash in the next week or two (27/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Let me start by saying that I am a bear, and believe this market will implode spectacularly rising bond yields across the globe have a much bigger effect than people think, but I don't think we are crashing today of right now. I really can't see the market crashing before the stimulus or before reopening, however a forward looking market needs something to look forward too, and once the stimulus has passed and we have reopend, that's when I'd be worried. Also bubbles pops always happen after the most ballistic period, I mean the market goes nuts look at dot com, Japan, South sea. And we haven't seen that yet with this bubble. if you are new I would hold and don't panic sell, if you are invested for the long term crash or no crash you will do well.   submitted by   /u/ilai_reddead [link]   [comments]
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  30. Go back to WSB (10/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Please stop posting about gme on this subreddit it is just full of people who can’t post on wsb and are now posting here. Besides that they are not giving any information and are just posting screenshots and shouting “TO THE MOON” it’s pretty annoying. In my opinion this subreddit is more about finding new company’s and the stock market overall. Now when I’m scrolling through this subreddit the only thing I’m seeing is the same thing over and over and over again. It’s always just a screenshot from the stock and how much it went up or down and some emojis. Not trying to spread hate here just giving my opinion.   submitted by   /u/StretchCreative6466 [link]   [comments]
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  31. What’s your opinion on social media accounts manipulating the ‘meme’ stocks? (29/06/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Stocks like gme, bb, amc, etc has garnered tons of attention lately. There are thousands of accounts which seem dedicated to spreading misunderstandings of the market and ghost lighting / downvoting/ arguing any opinion that tries to give some unbiased and reasonable judgement against the security in question. They spread narratives like amc can actually goto 500k a share, which is more than the entire worlds annual GDP . What are your thought on retail manipulation? For all of these stocks, if there is a squeeze, retail won’t even know to sell. They will all end up bagholding in my opinion, maybe 5% of buyers will get out and make money , those who bought in early or actively trade and know what they are doing. These are not buy and hold forever stocks.   submitted by   /u/memecaptial [link]   [comments]
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  32. Overvalued stock market. (28/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    So the P/E of big companies such as apple and microsoft is sitting at a very high level. This indicates lower returns on your investment in the future (if the stock market is rational) since alot of the future earnings of the company is already priced in. So thats why im Asking you guys for your opinion on this. Im planning on moving my money from apple stock to safer, better valued companies simply cause i think my money will be more effective there due to alot being priced in in apple etc. No doubt apple is a great company, but it (and alot of companies) look overvalued. What do you guys think, are high valuations here to stay for a while until a market crash / correction? How far can this go?   submitted by   /u/Lillgagge194 [link]   [comments]
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  33. Recent China Afterschool Stock Crash (01/08/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    China announced that they will ban all for profit after school tutoring companies which will cause all Chinese education stocks to plummet. How bad does this new stock crash affect companies from getting into the education market in the Asia region? FYI: I’m not very knowledgeable in stocks just a market researcher here   submitted by   /u/idkwhat2putasmyuserr [link]   [comments]
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  34. Do Not Panic Sell (03/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Yes the red market is scary because bond yields are up, but who actually doesn't believe that it'll bounce back. You invested where you did because you thought you could make money, if the market is irrational why would you change your opinion on what you saw. I'm personally knee deep on the semiconductor industry and still believe that a giant boom is incoming so I'm staying. Would hate to see people regret selling their stock 6 months - 1 year from now because they saw red. Just some advice, never forget to do your own DD before buying or selling anything   submitted by   /u/Krios625 [link]   [comments]
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  35. Which stocks are the worst to buy now? (24/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Everyday I see list of stocks that are a good buy, but which ones do you think are the worst? Which stock is the most likely to crash and lose money in your opinion? Which company do you think is the next Enron, Theranos or Wire card?   submitted by   /u/Printer-Pam [link]   [comments]
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  36. Market Snapshot: Dow set to edge higher as investors await jobs report following stock-market rout (05/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. stock-index futures on Friday point to modest gains for the three main benchmarks, after three straight days of losses, ahead of the Labor Department's monthly employment report that comes as investors struggle with a steady rise in bond yields, driven by expectations of economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.
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  37. Is it end of Tesla? (28/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Because Tesla losing market to Volkswagen and Tesla P/E is too high (overbought), do you think that stock keeps falling til its maybe 300 dollar or Tesla will rise and be back to 800 dollar in few weeks? Seems to me that when in February there was big bubble, stocks fell and now rising again...then for some reason Telsa stock is still not recovering...what is happening? Most of stocks doing now U but Tesla still keep falling...and Friday was amazing. All stocks were green...only Tesla was red. Tell me your honest opinion whatever you hold or not hold this stock.   submitted by   /u/MAARJA007 [link]   [comments]
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  38. Zoom stock - comparing financial ratios (03/08/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I recently read that one way you can work out if a stock is overvalued is by looking at EV/EBITDA or P/E ratios across the market. I want to use this to see if Zoom stock is overvalued, but nearly all of Zoom's competitors are conglomerates (i.e. Google for Google Meet, Microsoft for Skype, Cisco for Cisco Webex, etc.), so I'm not sure if directly comparing ratios will be an accurate indicator. What could I do here? Thanks!   submitted by   /u/ABCBAA [link]   [comments]
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  39. Can the stock market please crash already? (01/04/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    I would like the big banks to just admit that they've overleveraged hundreds of hedge funds and that Archegos was just a taste of what's to come. Valuations in the market are sitting 16-32x what they should be and another fire sale(s) could trigger a cascade of panic selling. Someone please tell me how they're comfortable investing in today's market when stocks from March of 2020 to March of 2021 look like a fucking stiletto on the growth chart. There is no justification for a company's stock to gain $30 in one month when it's already sitting at $110. More speculation, more excess dollars and sooner or later it will come to a head. I'm tired of waiting, just get on with the fucking show already.   submitted by   /u/Defiant_Statement_81 [link]   [comments]
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  40. Should we short Zoom (ZM) today? (02/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Zoom reported earnings and beat expectations by a lot. In the extended hours, it tried to break through the previous resistance level at 450$ but was rejected and the pre-market price is around 445$. Since I believe that many people have bought the dip in the last two weeks of February, and now have a 20-25% profit should we expect Zoom to drop today?   submitted by   /u/Lemur5000 [link]   [comments]
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  41. Since Bond Yields Are Soaring Here's My Opinion On The Market (19/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
      submitted by   /u/Krios625 [link]   [comments]
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  42. The market will be fine (24/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Today got a lot of people anxious because it was a fairly poor day, for no obvious reasons. Here is the best explanation i found: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/pension-funds-have-to-buy-bonds-to-rebalance-portfolios-and-that-might-be-good-for-stocks.html In short, it looks like a lot of big pension funds sold a lot of stocks to buy bonds as their quarterly rebalancing. This explains why the Yields actually went down a lot while the rest of the market as a whole was tanking. But if you noticed, one thing did well: FAANG. Why? because analysts expect the yields going down to help the large cap growth stocks. But i think once the large funds are done rebalancing, people will buy back into the market for sure with the low yields, and we should see growth doing better. I think the most important thing is to not panic and hold to our red positions... If the feds was able to save us from a massive covid crash, they can save us from a tiny dip that was caused by literally nothing lol Note: I expect April could still be volatile, but i really think the summer will good to us, and Q4 even better =)   submitted by   /u/Floofyboy [link]   [comments]
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  43. Do any stocks go up during a bear market? (24/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Much as it seems 100% (almost literally) of stocks took a dip in the March 2020 crash and went up since, I am wondering if—in a bear market—ALL stocks (essentially) follow the market? I feel like stocks going up the past year has has little to do with reality (especially as it pertains to any given stock). Example of what I’m wondering (extreme example for effect): It’s a huge sustained bear market. Economy is bad or marginal. Random company has 1000% YoY growth every quarter, and no debt. PE ratio is 3. Foreword looking PE is 1.2. They have received $1 Trillion in non-cancelable merchandise orders. But it is a big bear market.... Will that hypothetical company’s stock price go up in price day to day?   submitted by   /u/peachezandsteam [link]   [comments]
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  44. Isn't "the market will crash" a self-fulfilling profecy? (13/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I mean sure, there are periods where actual hard facts bring the market to a crash. But I'm seeing a lot of "experts" saying the market will crash. Doesn't that kind of make it a self-fullfilling profecy? I mean if investors think the market will crash, the market will crash as they will all start pulling out, crashing the stocks. Seems a bit ridiculous! And it's the last thing we need now, during pandemic recovery.   submitted by   /u/ThePerson_There [link]   [comments]
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  45. How did you learn about stocks and investing? (27/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I want to start investing into the stock market, I see a lot of people my age (20) who know so much about the stock market and investing in general whether or not it’s into the stock market. I know none of you can speak for them, but how did you get to where you are today in terms of stock market knowledge? How did you get started with investing? What did you tools did you use to learn?   submitted by   /u/mynailfelloff [link]   [comments]
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  46. Pre-market is terrible. (05/05/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Europeans wake up, buy stocks, price goes up (pre-market) and when US stock market opens then everyone selling stocks and stock market falls. 3 may, Nasdaq was up like 1%+ pre-market and few hours later NASDAQ was -0.48% It seems to me that americans buy stock at lowest price, on red day. And when next day Europeans buy stock, pump price up and when US stock market is open again, you sell everything. ​ STOP DOING THAT! I keep losing my money like this.   submitted by   /u/MAARJA007 [link]   [comments]
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  47. Business Insider: Many top investors are predicting an epic market crash. (06/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other top investors are predicting an epic market crash. Here are their gravest warnings so far ​ Some have seen this from the off, but now it's coming in to the public consciousness, with the very first threads starting to seep through from mainstream media. What's your opinion on this? Are you prepared? Or do you just think the bears are being paranoid?   submitted by   /u/Dannyboi93 [link]   [comments]
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  48. Unpopular Opinion - Meme Stocks are Ruining the Notion of Investing (25/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I'm honestly getting sick and tired of all these meme stocks like GME and AMC. As someone trying to build a sustainable portfolio for the long term, nothing pisses me off more than the fact that I land a great dip buy only to see the market dip even more because of these meme stocks and the people following them. It's like people are greedy as heck and want to become billionaires overnight. We're literally seeing a lot of people blindly hop on the meme stock bandwagon with diamond hands in hopes of reaching the moon. Sure as hell, it might work out for some, but for others, they'll be left in piles of losses. And this begs the question that each person should've asked themselves in the first place, "is it worth it?" Rome wasn't built overnight, so don't be delusional by fooling yourself into accepting the idea that you'll "go to the moon" overnight because the odds of that happening are very low. I don't know what to say. With the whole covid situation and these meme stocks gaining unnecessary attention, 2020 / 2021 have both been an interesting stock market experience to say the least. If I could say anything about this experience, I'd say that it showed me that the market is illogical. A company could have the greatest news out there that should send the stock flying upward, but it ends up tanking even more. Meanwhile, a company could have no great news or may even have bad news, but it ends up skyrocketing because people decide to diamond hand it. At this point, I have no clue what to do as the market again turns bloody red with all the mess going on. I know I can't time the market, so I just keep dollar cost averaging, but it's sickening to see this meme stock induced volatility after heavily dumping money into the market on a regular basis. For all I know, I could dump money in today and then boom another drop tomorrow and the day after and so on. At least, before meme stock hype came about, you could somewhat have a clue of the market will perform to a limited extent of course, but now with all this crap, there's just so much uncertainty that I have no idea what the next best move would be.   submitted by   /u/kids_eat_drugs [link]   [comments]
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