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28 July 2021
19:35 hour

Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends

INO.com

25/02/2021 - 18:18

Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength. The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from […] The post Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog.


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  1. Will 2021 Prompt A Big Rotation In Sector Trends? - Part 2 (11/02/2021 - INO.com)
    In the first part of this research article, we attempted to provide some details to the question of “sector trends in 2021 and what may shift over the next 10 to 12+ months”. In that section of this article, we covered the broad market sector trends and highlighted how the COVID-19 virus event changed the […] The post Will 2021 Prompt A Big Rotation In Sector Trends? - Part 2 appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog.
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  3. The $1.9 T stimulus should cause the yield to go higher resulting in more stock market volatility (07/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    The US Department of Treasury auctions treasury bills on regular basis. These bonds are bought by sovereign governments, funds, and more importantly by the FED. The FED has been buying bonds and mortgage backed securities at the pace of $120 B a month. On the other hand sovereign governments have been slightly less eager to buy the US bonds. Now, with the $1.9 T stimulus, the Treasury Department will have to auction even more treasury bills to cover such massive legislation. But the $120 B a month bond buying by the FED will not be sufficient to cope with the oversupply of bonds. Coupled with the fact that sovereign governments have less appetite to buy the US debt, this means less demand for bonds which will result in bond prices going down. And that will cause the yield to go even higher. With that, there appears to be only one force that can impact the above flow: the FED. If the FED is not willing to buy the excess in bonds, there bonds will continue be cheaper and the yield will continue going higher. In consequence, the stock market will continue to be under pressure and has more room to the downside as it has been looking and is pressing for more free money from the FED. ​ Thoughts? ​ P.S. The Treasury department is auctioning $62 B in the week ahead that will test the yield.   submitted by   /u/fm1965 [link]   [comments]
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  4. How do I short the automobile finance industry? (30/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  10. Tax Saving Bonds vs Tax-Free Bonds: Which one should you opt for? (15/03/2021 - Financial Express)
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  15. Why invest in bonds at all? (20/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  18. The traditional stock bond ratio (24/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  19. Given fears of inflation, will the $1.9t stimulus be good for stocks? (06/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  21. Why the fuck are my friends being told to buy bonds. Btw their in their 20s (18/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  23. Where's all the money going? (05/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  24. Good Plays Anticipating Economic Stimulus? (14/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  25. Whats with all the banks issuing bonds all of a sudden? (16/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  26. Health care, Energy and Infrastructure can be the leading sectors in 2021 (18/02/2021 - Financial Express)
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  27. Treasury Bonds, why should we care? (20/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I’m going to start with a very brief overview of Bonds and how they in turn affect stocks. Then I will pose some questions for discussion as I do not fully understand how this will affect the market. When you buy Bonds you are buying US Government debt. The Yield is how much interest the Bond pays. Yield is determined by supply and demand of the Bonds. When the Pandemic hit people apparently flocked to Bonds because they are a safe investment and this buying drove down the Bond Yield. The Bond Yield causes other interest rates (mortgages, loans, credit cards) to follow its rise or fall. Since the Yield went down so did interest rates, this caused a boom in the stock market (along with stimulus) because business could borrow money for less. Currently, Bonds have been selling off which increases the Yield. This increases interest rates making businesses dependent on cheap lending, like Tech, to fall in price. Bonds are selling off because people are expecting inflation to increase with a hotter economy and it doesn’t make sense to have money tied to low yield bonds when inflation is greater than the Bond Yield. So now the stock market is going through a period of volatility because of the Bond sell off and uncertainty about inflation. To ease this uncertainty investors have wanted the Fed to announce Yield Curve Control (YCC). Basically, the Fed buys Bonds to keep the Yield at a desired rate. So far it looks like the Fed isn’t worried about the rates right now and want to see more sustainable economic growth before doing anything with rates. Questions for discussion: Why would the markets react poorly to rising Yield? I get that it’s more expensive to finance debt but won’t the Bond sellers most likely move money into the stock market? The Fed wants inflation, and inflation fears have driven a Bond sell off. If the Fed gets their inflation target and it doesn’t go out of control than shouldn’t markets calm down? I see no reason the Fed would loose control, they have so many more tools than they ever have before. If the market is doomed to be stifled because of all this where is a good place to move money? Obviously all stocks won’t suck and many have already started the rotation into value and emerging markets.   submitted by   /u/anth1986 [link]   [comments]
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  28. G-Secs: Retail investors may not prefer government bonds (11/02/2021 - Financial Express)
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  29. How does Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio reconcile with his latest views on Bonds? (18/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    First of all, apologies if this is not the appropriate subreddit for this as this is not strictly related to individual stocks. I don't think I'm breaking any rules but I'm relatively new here so would appreciate any guidance. With that out of the way, I wanted to get the hive mind's thoughts on Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio. For those not aware, the portfolio comprises of 40% long term bonds, 15% intermediate bonds, 30% stocks, 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities. The idea is that it is 'all-weather' and can help preserve and grow your portfolio regardless of the economic cycle. You're of course not going to make the same returns as a 100% total stocks portfolio in a bull market, but the goals here is to grow your assets with least volatility. This strategy is well established, well espoused and is rigorously back-tested. However, there have been recent posts from Bridgewater indicating there's no point in holding bonds. E.g. - https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/why-in-the-world-would-you-own-bonds-when Ray Dalio himself has come on CNBC and claimed that it's pointless holding bonds - I can't find an exactly link right now for his interview. This has me really confused. Given the all weather portfolio is 55% bonds, and Dalio and Bridgewater are now claiming that bonds are useless, then what goes into the All Weather portfolio in their place? I've invested quite a bit of money per this strategy and the recent bonds sell off coupled with the above statements have me concerned. I'm hoping someone smarter than me that has looked into this can help enlighten me!   submitted by   /u/tiktoktikitikitok [link]   [comments]
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  30. Is there a reason to not short bonds in low interest rate environments? (24/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Obviously there's no "free money hack" in the markets (other than arbitrages that retail investors can't do). But given that bonds move inversely of interest rates, and interest rates are really low, isn't there asymmetric downside compared to upside? If rates are near 0 then they can only really go up which means shorting bonds should be a pretty decent trade. Is the risk in that bonds can potentially have negative rates? Ignoring transaction costs, cost to borrow etc. is there a reason why I wouldn't want to do this? It seems high probability to me. Thanks!   submitted by   /u/FullMetal373 [link]   [comments]
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  31. What stocks to buy before stimulus (09/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Many reports say that half of the stimulus package will end up in the stock market. I personally don’t believe half will go into the market but a decent percentage will. Investing has seen so much growth within the younger generation, likely from Wall Street bets. Could this be an opportunity to make a quick profit of some meme or just popular stocks? Some individuals that receive a stimulus will definitely just throw it at GME or any brands that they recognize without doing any DD. Would AAPL rise quickly after the stimulus or any other stocks? I haven’t seen any discussions on this topic and are wondering what other people think.   submitted by   /u/Hockeykid6323 [link]   [comments]
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  36. Future of Autonomous Driving (18/05/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  37. Coforge raises Rs 340 crore through bonds (27/04/2021 - Money Works 4 Me)
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  38. Equinix prices $2.6B in bonds, includes $1B in green bonds (04/05/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  39. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield slides to 5-month low below 1.23% (19/07/2021 - Market Watch)
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  40. CDX at All Time Low, Bond Yields Continue to Increase. (17/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  41. Europe Markets: Bond rally continues while Dow futures slump 300 points and European stocks retreat (08/07/2021 - Market Watch)
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  45. I'm doing the "Big Short" but on Bonds reaching new ATHs, what would be the other plays on this apart from just buying Calls on TLT? (06/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Like what else would this affect? yes i am making a "Big Short" kind of play but its more like im playing the opposite side instead of shorting, for example me thinking that stocks are gonna crash im going long calls on bonds thinking they are gonna hit new ATHs within a year currently holding about 8 calls on TLT for $170 about a year out, actually expiring Dec 2022 im thinking bonds rise to Pandemic highs tbh but what else am i able to play if i think that bonds are going to go up? I know that yields in theory should go down but i have no idea how to shorts yields what else would i be able to do?   submitted by   /u/rawrtherapybackup [link]   [comments]
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  46. NewsWatch: How inflation’s bite makes bonds riskier than stocks (21/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    You'd have to hold U.S. Treasury bonds for 57 years to not lose to inflation.
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