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19 September 2021
12:34 hour

TMC - High Gamma, High Short Interest, but high IV (from 9-13-21)

Reddit Stock Market

15/09/2021 - 00:20

Sharing the original DD from u/pennyether from yesterday on $TMC: TMC - High Gamma, High Short Interest, but high IV (from 9-13-21) As noted in my previous post, I've been keeping track of a few deSPACs. Note: I'm going to rush typing this, as TMC seems to be going through a squeeze today so I want to get this out as quickly as possible. Apologies for the shittiness of it. I started this last night after getting back from vacation but have had other things to take care of. (Edit while proofreading: FUCK it keeps going up!) VIH update My last post was mostly about VIH, and I included a shitty spreadsheet that I've been half-heartedly keeping up to date. I was unaware that the SOAC -> TMC redemption had occurred and the redemption number was quite large: 91%. I still think VIH is a decent bet on a future deSPAC hype/squeeze/squeeze attempt, but until that redemption occurs (which I have no idea when that would be), I don't expect much to happen. I have a small position in October ATM calls ($10, $11, $12.50) as those could see some IV boost. Set-up of TMC (formerly SOAC) As noted above, the redemption took place Thursday. It looks like TMC has a pretty great set-up, with one catch: The IV is already through the roof. Here's a summary: Redemption was 92%, leaving 2.7m shares floated. Against the existing OI and SI, this is rather small. DeltaFlux table is incredibly bullish, I'd expect it to at least hit the gamma peak of ~$10.75 sometime soon (edit: already happened). It's like IRNT was, except has a very significant amount of shares shorted (relative to float). I think downside is ~$10.00 (maybe $9.00), whereas $15 or $20 is obtainable. I like those odds. IV is already jacked, so I'm going in with shares. You can try your luck at OTMs if you have the balls for it. DeltaFlux Table Here's a summary: 1.00% float per 1.00% price movement is very sizeable -- TMC is at ~3.50%. Note that this is using a high IV to calculate gamma, MMs are likely using a bit lower, so I believe actual gamma is a bit higher. Of course this is all an approximation anyway -- high gamma is high gamma. Net delta is >100% float. That's pretty awesome. For comparison, see the post on IRNT before it blew up. Gamma was at 2.50%, and shares deltahedged was at 91.00%. TMC -- $11.00 (+$1.59 [+16.90%]) -- DeltaFlux Tables Explained OI as of: Mon Sep 13 (at open) - Date used for DTE: Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 ESTWeighted Avg IV: 235.33%, Shares: 30,000,000, Float: 2,700,000, Avg Vol (10d): 2,309,000 Delta Flux table: https://imgur.com/a/6a44tRz Max Pain for Expiration: Fri Sep 17, 2021 16:00 EST https://imgur.com/a/wgjorwP Expiration Breakout https://imgur.com/a/Y3WfQt5 The last value I got from Ortex for SOAC, the ticker before redemption, was ~1.8m (9-14 EOD update is ~1.2m). Compared to a 2.7m float, where a shit ton of that is tied up in deltahedging options, that's a very high percentage. Also, given IRNT and the psuedo-retail-squeeze-season we're in, the situation for shorts is highly volatile and they might be easily squeezed. I can see a squeeze happening here quite easily. Especially if it gets started before Sep 16/17, when MMs might dehedge a bit. If the squeeze pushes prices up above, say, $12.00, we'll have positive charm meaning MMs might not dehedge very hard at all. Here's the Ortex screenshot for SOAC (from 9-13-21). ​ Ortex info for TMC. They don't have estimated SI, since the ticker is new I guess. Not sure why they can't just carry it over from the old ticker. ​ I'm not sure what to make of the TMC "today's changes". For one, I don't know how accurate it is given the ticker change. But it could be that shorts are covering here. A word on IV, and Options vs Shares MMs have already caught on to the deSPAC craze, so if you want to buy options, you'll have to pay for them. And by pay for them, I mean the fact that the float is very low and MMs have a hard time hedging is already priced in. So if you believe the low float is the catalyst for this thing to fly, then buying calls is essentially removing your alpha. If anything, you're betting against your own thesis. This is the key difference with all of these deSPAC plays post-IRNT: MMs are aware that the float is low and so the option premiums have shot up. You can still make a decent buck with options if the underlying shoots up 10.00%+ or whatever... but the days of 10-baggers are over. Insteady, consider a larger bet on shares. It's very unlikely it goes to 0, but possible to see double digit percentage gains. In other words: I'd rather gain 30% on a larger bet (and risk losing, say, 20% of it), than gain 100% on a smaller bet, but risk losing all of it. Social situation I'd prefer to get this out quickly rather than write my commentary on the social situation. So I won't include full numbers of stocktwits, twitter mentions, etc. Here's my brief take: Sentiment is rising on this one. It's one of the deSPACs that's actually moving Nearly the same set-up as IRNT, but with the twist of high short interest... which you know gets retail foaming at the mouth I don't see this getting onto WSB anytime soon, however the deSPAC craze has drawn a lot of eyes to other subreddits. So this could gain some traction Eyes are on IRNT (recently hit WSB), and ATER (I have no idea what this one is), and other deSPACs I think today's price action will draw more eyes to TMC. Other I don't know what's behind today's price action: It could be a pump from social/other sub-reddits. If so, that shakes my confidence a bit. It could be from shorts covering. I think this is somewhat likely but can't really tell. It could be from MMs delta-hedging -- given the high IV, I don't think this is very likely, but there is a significant amount of OI on $10 calls. I am bullish given how quickly the price on this thing can move with relatively low volume, so I'm confident a short squeeze or gamma squeeze will move this thing a lot. Again, I don't recommend options at this price. My positions (from 9-13-21) I have some Sep 17 $15 calls that I accumulated Friday which I'm slowly selling into the action today. I do not recommend buying them. I have a lot of shares.   submitted by   /u/Self_Mastery [link]   [comments]


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  25. Moldova Interest Rate (03/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Moldova was last recorded at 2.65 percent. Interest Rate in Moldova averaged 10.08 percent from 2001 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 21 percent in January of 2001 and a record low of 2.65 percent in November of 2020. In Moldova, interest rate decisions are taken by the National Bank of Moldova. The official interest rate is the base rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Moldova Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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  26. Georgia Interest Rate (16/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Georgia was last recorded at 8 percent. Interest Rate in Georgia averaged 6.74 percent from 2008 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in April of 2008 and a record low of 3.75 percent in August of 2013. In Georgia, interest rate decisions are taken by the National Bank of Georgia. The official interest rate is the 7-day refinancing rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Georgia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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  27. 2iQ: Wolfpack’s Short Attack on Skillz: What Does Insider Transaction and Short Selling Data Tell Us? (20/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Full Article: https://www.2iqresearch.com/blog/wolfpacks-short-attack-on-skillz-2021-04-20 TL;DR - Decent short interest/utilization, but exercise caution. Short Selling Activity Moving on to short selling, our securities lending data shows that currently, there are 46.5 million shares short. Skillz has 326,316,000 million shares in issue which means that short interest is a high 14.3%. This level of short interest is slightly concerning. It suggests that a number of sophisticated investors are betting against the stock right now. Digging deeper into the short side data, we can see that, as of 16 April, utilization was a high 95.1%. Utilization refers to the number of loaned shares divided by the available shares in the securities lending market, expressed as a percentage. It is essentially a ratio of demand to supply. The high utilization rate here tells us that there is a strong demand to short the company’s stock relative to the number of available shares. Skillz: A Number of Red Flags Putting this all together, we think caution is warranted towards Skillz stock right now. Not only has the stock seen large sales from insiders but it has also seen a rise in short interest recently. These are both red flags. Additionally, the valuation remains high and the stock is locked in a downtrend, which suggests that investors are losing confidence. Going forward, we think it’s worth monitoring the insider transaction data closely. If insiders are confident about the future, we would expect to see some substantial insider buying at Skillz in the near future.   submitted by   /u/Grey_Patagonia_Vest [link]   [comments]
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  28. Bhutan Interest Rate (16/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Bhutan was last recorded at 6.86 percent. Interest Rate in Bhutan averaged 6.25 percent from 2012 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 7.04 percent in March of 2019 and a record low of 6 percent in July of 2012. In Bhutan, interest rate decisions are taken by the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan. The official interest rate is Policy Rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Bhutan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  29. Belarus Interest Rate (12/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Belarus was last recorded at 7.75 percent. Interest Rate in Belarus averaged 46.15 percent from 1991 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 480 percent in November of 1994 and a record low of 7.75 percent in June of 2020. In Belarus, interest rate decisions are taken by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. The official interest rate is the refinancing rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Belarus Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  30. Guinea Interest Rate (27/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Guinea was last recorded at 11.50 percent. Interest Rate in Guinea averaged 15.89 percent from 2006 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 22.25 percent in January of 2007 and a record low of 9 percent in December of 2009. In Guinea, interest rates decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea’s Monetary Policy Committee. The CBRG’s official interest rate is the key rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Guinea Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  31. Liberia Interest Rate (17/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Liberia was last recorded at 25 percent. Interest Rate in Liberia averaged 19 percent from 2019 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 30 percent in November of 2019 and a record low of 4 percent in April of 2019. The Central Bank of Liberia does not use the interest rate as a monetary policy tool. The interest rate is currently the standing deposit facility rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Liberia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  32. Namibia Interest Rate (17/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Namibia was last recorded at 3.75 percent. Interest Rate in Namibia averaged 6.90 percent from 2007 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 10.50 percent in May of 2007 and a record low of 3.75 percent in August of 2020. In Namibia, interest rates decisions are taken by the Executive Committee of the Bank of Namibia. The official interest rate is the Repo Rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Namibia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  33. Rwanda Interest Rate (16/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Rwanda was last recorded at 4.50 percent. Interest Rate in Rwanda averaged 6.99 percent from 2005 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in September of 2005 and a record low of 4.50 percent in March of 2020. In Rwanda interest rates decisions are taken by the National Bank of Rwanda. The official interest rate is the Key Repo Rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Rwanda Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  34. Oman Interest Rate (17/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Oman was last recorded at 0.50 percent. Interest Rate in Oman averaged 1.62 percent from 2008 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in October of 2008 and a record low of 0.50 percent in March of 2020. In Oman, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of Oman. The official interest rate is the repo rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Oman Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  35. Ecuador Interest Rate (30/04/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Ecuador was last recorded at 9.02 percent. Interest Rate in Ecuador averaged 18.99 percent from 1970 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 72.60 percent in January of 2000 and a record low of 6.67 percent in May of 2018. In Ecuador, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of Ecuador´s Governing Council. The official interest rate is the Benchmark Lending Rate (Tasa Activa Referencial). This page provides the latest reported value for - Ecuador Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  36. Burundi Interest Rate (17/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Burundi was last recorded at 6 percent. Interest Rate in Burundi averaged 9.70 percent from 2007 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 16.24 percent in July of 2012 and a record low of 5.07 percent in June of 2018. In Burundi, interest rates decisions are taken by the Monetary Committee of the Bank of Burundi. The official rate is the refinance rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Burundi Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  37. Romania Interest Rate (11/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Romania was last recorded at 1.25 percent. Interest Rate in Romania averaged 5.08 percent from 2005 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 12.50 percent in May of 2005 and a record low of 1.25 percent in January of 2021. In Romania, interest rates decisions are taken by the Board of the National Bank of Romania (Banca Nationala a Romaniei). The official interest rate is the Policy Rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Romania Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  38. Guatemala Interest Rate (10/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Guatemala was last recorded at 1.75 percent. Interest Rate in Guatemala averaged 4.18 percent from 2005 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 7.25 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of 1.75 percent in June of 2020. In Guatemala, the interest rate decisions are taken by the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala. The official interest rate is the monetary policy key rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Guatemala Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  39. Venezuela Interest Rate (12/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Venezuela was last recorded at 38.15 percent. Interest Rate in Venezuela averaged 23.74 percent from 1998 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 83.73 percent in February of 2002 and a record low of 12.79 percent in April of 2006. The Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, BCV) is not responsible for setting interest rates. This page provides the latest reported value for - Venezuela Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  40. Jordan Interest Rate (16/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Jordan was last recorded at 2.50 percent. Interest Rate in Jordan averaged 5.80 percent from 1965 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in August of 1998 and a record low of 2.50 percent in June of 2003. In Jordan, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of Jordan. Since February of 2015, the official interest rate is the CBJ Main Rate. Until February of 2015, the official interest rate was the re-discount rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Jordan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  41. Norway Interest Rate (11/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Norway was last recorded at 0 percent. Interest Rate in Norway averaged 3.90 percent from 1991 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 11 percent in September of 1992 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 2020. In Norway, benchmark interest rate is set by the Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank). The official interest rate is the key policy rate, also known as sight deposit rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Norway Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  42. Taiwan Interest Rate (05/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Taiwan was last recorded at 1.13 percent. Interest Rate in Taiwan averaged 1.81 percent from 2000 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 4.63 percent in December of 2000 and a record low of 1.13 percent in March of 2020. In Taiwan, interest rate decisions are taken by Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). The official interest rate is the discount rate on 10-day loans to banks. This page provides the latest reported value for - Taiwan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  43. High Short Interest stocks going to the moon ? ???????? (17/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    So I’m reading this and I see all the high leveled shorted stocks. Lots of tickers in the 40% range with little float to cover. All the talk is about $GME and the short interest not possibly being 24% So here’s my question, with the new SEC???? and so much excellent DD being done in r/superstonk - are any rules ever going to be put in place to stop all this naked shorting in the near term? If so, aren’t all of these highly shorted stocks going to ???? ???? shortly thereafter? My fear is the big boys will quietly fix this huge issue and sweep all of this under the rug and we the retail investors will be left holding the bag. Full disclosure, I’m hodling GME and ASO, because I like the stock and I’m not a financial anything.   submitted by   /u/DrPoopyPants [link]   [comments]
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  44. Dominican Republic Interest Rate (11/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Dominican Republic was last recorded at 3 percent. Interest Rate in Dominican Republic averaged 7 percent from 2004 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 50 percent in February of 2004 and a record low of 1 percent in January of 2004. In the Dominican Republic, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of Dominican Republic. The official interest rate is the Overnight Interest Rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Dominican Republic Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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  45. $BB Gamma squeeze tomorrow?? (25/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Looking at the charts, think we may see a gamma squeeze in BB tomorrow. Right now as I type this, the after hours price of BB is $12.40/share. That price places quite a few call options in the money. Take a look at the open interest for calls expiring this Friday (i.e., Feb. 26) at strike prices of $11.00, $11.50, and $12.00. You are looking at 18,722 contracts open as of the close of trading today (i.e., Feb. 24). Given the sell-off in the NASDAQ this week, many hedge funds / others thought BB was going to stay under $11. (Look at the spike in open interest at $11). I bet a bunch of the options at $11 and above were written naked. If BB can close above $13 tomorrow, a boat load of call options will be in the money. Friday could bring a gamma squeeze where BB really takes off.   submitted by   /u/growthinvestor123 [link]   [comments]
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  46. Morocco Interest Rate (17/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Morocco was last recorded at 1.50 percent. Interest Rate in Morocco averaged 3.68 percent from 1995 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 7 percent in August of 1995 and a record low of 1.50 percent in June of 2020. In Morocco, interest rate decisions are taken by Morocco’s central bank, Bank al- Maghrib. The official interest rate is the key rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - Morocco Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  47. Tunisia Interest Rate (17/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate in Tunisia was last recorded at 6.25 percent. Interest Rate in Tunisia averaged 5.04 percent from 2006 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 7.75 percent in February of 2019 and a record low of 3.50 percent in September of 2011. In Tunisia, interest rates decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) Executive Board. The Central Bank of Tunisia official interest rate is the Rate of call for tender (TAO). This page provides the latest reported value for - Tunisia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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  48. Spain Interest Rate (26/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 0 percent. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.79 percent from 1998 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016. This page provides the latest reported value for - Spain Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  49. Lithuania Interest Rate (26/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 0 percent. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.79 percent from 1998 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016. This page provides the latest reported value for - Lithuania Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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