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17 September 2021
22:12 hour

Tamer US August CPI bolsters Fed's transitory inflation case

Investing.com

14/09/2021 - 16:32


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  1. Transitory inflation? (18/05/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Can someone explain how inflation will be “transitory” (As J-Powell has referenced)? I can see how the exorbitant prices of raw materials will come down as global supply chain bottlenecks eventually resolve themselves, but when has a consumer business (such as a restaurant) ever taken back an increase in menu prices? I tend to side with the fed regarding the outlook on inflation in the near future. I don’t believe we will see a level of inflation that will decimate our economy and render the dollar worthless. However, I do expect higher levels of inflation than normal. And I’m not too sure about Powell’s comments that inflation is on track to mildly exceed 2%. I think it will be a bit higher than that. What do you make of Powell’s comment and what is your outlook for 2021?   submitted by   /u/HotspurN17 [link]   [comments]
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  2. Help Me Understand CME Futures And Inflation (17/05/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    So right now, the mainstream narrative is that inflation is going to run red hot mostly due to a rally in commodity prices. This inflation has the potential to be more than transitory, meaning it lasts more than a couple of quarters at most and will result in forcing the FED to raise rates and crash growth stocks. This is why apparently, tech stocks are underperforming while value, or more specifically, manufacturing and mining companies outperform (look at XME for example). My question is if that is the case, then why are steel futures for U.S. Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel going down CME Link? Right now they peak in June at $1,520 a tonne before steadily going down for the foreseeable future. Similar things can be said about other commodities such as copper, which remains relatively steady before gradually going down going into next year Copper Link. On the agriculture side, major commodities like corn appear to be peaking in the near future as well Corn Futures. So taking all of this into account, it would appear that the shape of the futures curves would indicate that commodity prices would peak in near future before gradually going down as supply meets demand. Shouldn't this mean that inflation is indeed transitory as the FED predicts? What am I missing here?   submitted by   /u/GushingGranny1 [link]   [comments]
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  3. Cash-out refi activity bolsters overall rate lock volume in August: Black Knight (13/09/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  4. What is your view on inflation? (22/06/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Do you believe this inflationary period is short-term and transitory? What leads you to believe that? Or are you part of the camp that believes inflation is here to stay, and the Feds will have to step in and make some tough decisions to stall or maybe even reverse it? And while you’re at it, what’s causing the inflation?   submitted by   /u/Hapaaer [link]   [comments]
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  5. The Fed: Fed’s Clarida says fourth-quarter inflation data will be key (09/04/2021 - Market Watch)
    Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Friday that the inflation readings at the end of the year will be important signs of whether the expected uptick in inflation this year is transitory or long-lasting.
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  6. NewsWatch: ‘I worry about inflation,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink — warns it’s unlikely ‘to be transitory’ (14/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    The head of the world's largest asset manager isn't convinced by the Federal Reserve's arguments that U.S. inflation pressures will soon fade away.
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  7. Key Words: ‘I worry about inflation,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns it’s unlikely ‘to be transitory’ (14/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    The head of the world's largest asset manager isn't convinced by the Federal Reserve's arguments that U.S. inflation pressures will soon fade away.
    [visit article]
  8. : June jobs report bolsters case for Fed to start slowing down bond-buys this year (02/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    The strong U.S. June employment report adds to the case for the Fed to announce and start slowing down its asset purchases before the end of the year, economists said.
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  9. Central banks continue to term inflation as transitory, but its threat to recovery could be real (26/06/2021 - Financial Express)
    Deep dive into major components of inflation- food, fuel and core- each reveal idiosyncratic factors that will potentially be longer lived.
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  10. Niger Inflation Rate (06/05/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Inflation Rate in Niger decreased to 3.90 percent in March from 5.70 percent in August of 2020. Inflation Rate in Niger averaged 2.07 percent from 2003 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in August of 2008 and a record low of -4.20 percent in August of 2006. In Niger, the inflation rate measures a broad rise or fall in prices that consumers pay for a standard basket of goods. This page provides the latest reported value for - Niger Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  11. Jump in inflation is 'transitory,' employment goals still far off, Fed's Clarida says (12/05/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  12. White House sees higher, but 'transitory' inflation (12/04/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  13. Transitory inflation appears less likely as rents are set to surge - Dallas Fed (04/09/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  14. Key Words: AutoNation CEO won’t fight the Fed, says inflation won’t last (19/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    AutoNation Inc. Chief Executive Mike Jackson isn't about to fight the Federal Reserve, saying he agreed with the central bank's view that inflation is transitory.
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  15. The Fed's 'See No Inflation' Posture (25/05/2021 - INO.com)
    Pressure, inflationary pressure that is, is starting to grow on the Federal Reserve to start dialing back its mammoth asset purchases and zero percent interest rate policy. While its main position remains that the recent rise in inflation is only “transitory,” the Fed may have at last started laying the groundwork for an earlier move […] The post The Fed's 'See No Inflation' Posture appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog.
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  16. Bond market signals transitory, inflation expectations may concur (13/06/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  17. GDP on track for strongest growth in decades, inflation still 'transitory', Powell says (16/06/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  18. Inflation pressures are still 'transitory,' Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell says (28/07/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  19. Fed Backs Current Policy Stance as Pick-Up in Inflation Transitory: Minutes (19/05/2021 - Investing.com)

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  20. Bond markets could be wrong about transitory inflation - Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour: (13/07/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  21. June PCE data isn't likely to change Jerome Powell's stance on 'transitory' inflation (30/07/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  22. Rates Unchanged: RBI ignores inflation, says it will support nascent growth (07/08/2021 - Financial Express)
    To this end, RBI left the repo rate unchanged at 4% even though it upped its inflation forecast for FY22 by a chunky 60 basis points to 5.7%, describing inflationary pressures as transitory and largely driven by adverse supply-side factors.
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  23. RBI MPC meet August 2021: Repo rate cut unlikely; inflation, global commodity prices weigh (02/08/2021 - Financial Express)
    The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be going into the August policy meeting with inflation exceeding the 6% upper bound
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  24. Federal Reserve officials discuss 'transitory' inflation pressures at April meeting (19/05/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  25. In case you've missed what's going on in the US (03/06/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Fed’s Beige Book Reports Pickup in Recovery, Price Pressures: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/fed-s-beige-book-reports-u-s-economy-expanded-at-moderate-pace Global Food Prices Surge To Highes In Almost Two Decades According To The UN: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-03/global-food-prices-surge-to-highest-in-almost-a-decade-un-says ​ Citi US Inflation Surprise Index hitting an all-time high since its inception in 1998 ​ Government payments still make up 22% of US Personal Income Meanwhile, Powell and the Fed: Inflation is transitory, we're not worried. ???? The Fed is apparently starting to sell some of its ETFs and corporate bonds accumulated during the stimulus (https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-plans-to-sell-13-7-billion-of-corporate-bonds-etfs-by-year-end-11622666400), but when you look at the numbers you can tell that they are just trying to play the market. If I'm not mistaken, that's only about $14 Billion! At the same time, they've pumped at least $750 Billion in the markets over the last 12+ months AND they are continuing to do so! This may be a classic case of me falling prey to confirmation bias, but literally everywhere I look, inflation is only just starting! What do you guys think?   submitted by   /u/y_angelov [link]   [comments]
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  26. Stocks for inflation/ raised rates (14/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    What stocks do you guys think we should look into if inflation is more than transitory and the fed raises rates sooner? Here a my picks: $JPM: JPMorgan is stock piling cash so they can loan it out when rates are higher, effectively setting themselves up to do good when the fed raises rates. Their dividend is 2.31% with a P/E of 12 $AVB: Avalon bay is a real-estate play. They focus on apartment buildings in developing areas, so in economy crash they won’t be having empty commercial buildings, and they will make more money with inflation as rent prices go up. Any debt they have will vanish with inflation. Their dividend is 2.87% with a P/E of 39(high) $MCD: McDonald’s is one of the biggest real estate company’s out there, so their property value would only go up in case of inflation. 47% of their stock price comes from operations over seas, so that would protect against the fed, where 44% of share price comes from US operations. Dividend is 2.18% with a P/E of 34 $WBA(Walgreens): Shipping prices are already going through the roof and company’s haven’t even started passing along trucking, container and cargo plane price increases. People will be shopping and buying tooth paste, and other necessities from Walgreens instead of ordering online. Market cap is $40 billion and they have $16 billion in debt that will vanish away with inflation. Their dividend is 3.95% with a P/E of 17. Let me know your picks and why!   submitted by   /u/Giorno-Giovanno [link]   [comments]
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  27. Russell Investments views inflation as “transitory,” as stated in their 2021 Q3 global outlook report (30/06/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  28. Get ready for the next crash (01/09/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    The next market crash will come in fast and furious. We wont see it coming until its right here. With massive spending not seen since WWII inflation right now may be transitory, but next year or the year after that when inflation shows up from the spending it won't be transitory anymore. The economy is not the same if was before the pandemic, inflation is increasing, millions still unemployed despite record job openings, and housing up 16% over 1 year. We could be entering a period of stagflation. Housing prices rising at such a rapid pace typically indicates there is something out of the norm. America is Headed for a Market Crash. Washington Deserves the Blame | Opinion (msn.com) There were only three times in history where sharp rises in real estate were at this rate, after each one a market correction happened. Whenever stocks today dip there are investors quickly buying the dip brining the market to new highs, tons of investors gambling with meme stocks like AMC, GME, and used boats are selling for the same price new boats were 2 years ago. How could this not be a bubble ready to burst? In tandem with that, during times of inflation, massive government spending, and uncertainty historically commodities, gold, silver, and mining perform well. What do you think? Do you agree the same information is relevant today and that we are in a bubble?   submitted by   /u/Early_Inspection_707 [link]   [comments]
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  29. NewsWatch: Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting (13/06/2021 - Market Watch)
    Transitory, or not transitory? Therein lies the question that the Federal Reserve needs to answer on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC's two-day gathering.
    [visit article]
  30. Bond Report: Treasury yields fall Friday, end lower for week and month despite inflation worries (29/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    Yields for U.S. government debt edged lower Friday, as investors pored over another reading of inflation, affirming that price pressures are gathering, though market participants view them as transitory.
    [visit article]
  31. Niger Food Inflation (06/05/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Cost of food in Niger increased 10.70 percent in August of 2020 over the same month in the previous year. Food Inflation in Niger averaged 0.90 percent from 2011 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 10.70 percent in August of 2020 and a record low of -6.60 percent in August of 2019. This page provides the latest reported value for - Niger Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
    [visit article]
  32. Get Ready for the Next Crash (31/08/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    The next market crash will come in fast and furious. We wont see it coming until its right here. With massive spending not seen since WWII inflation right now may be transitory, but next year or the year after that when inflation shows up from the spending it won't be transitory anymore. The economy is not the same if was before the pandemic, inflation is increasing, millions still unemployed despite record job openings, and housing up 16% over 1 year. We could be entering a period of stagflation. Housing prices rising at such a rapid pace typically indicates there is something out of the norm. America is Headed for a Market Crash. Washington Deserves the Blame | Opinion (msn.com) There were only three times in history where sharp rises in real estate were at this rate, after each one a market correction happened. Whenever stocks today dip there are investors quickly buying the dip brining the market to new highs, tons of investors gambling with meme stocks like AMC, GME, and used boats are selling for the same price new boats were 2 years ago. How could this not be a bubble ready to burst? In tandem with that, during times of inflation, massive government spending, and uncertainty historically commodities, gold, silver, and mining perform well. 6 Minute CEO - Bonterra Resources - Update on exciting progress - YouTube What do you think? Do you agree the same information is relevant today and that we are in a bubble?   submitted by   /u/capex- [link]   [comments]
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  33. NewsWatch: Surge in U.S. consumer prices slows in August, CPI shows. Has inflation peaked? (14/09/2021 - Market Watch)
    The cost of living rose in August at the slowest pace in seven months and signaled a big surge in inflation this year may have peaked, but Americans probably aren't going to get much relief from higher prices anytime soon.
    [visit article]
  34. Market Snapshot: Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at next week’s Fed meeting (12/06/2021 - Market Watch)
    Transitory, or not transitory? Therein lies the question that the Federal Reserve needs to answer next Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC's two-day gathering.
    [visit article]
  35. Liberia Food Inflation (04/05/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Cost of food in Liberia increased 13.96 percent in November of 2020 over the same month in the previous year. Food Inflation in Liberia averaged 13.51 percent from 2007 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 39.24 percent in August of 2008 and a record low of -4.24 percent in August of 2009. This page provides - Liberia Food Inflation - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
    [visit article]
  36. Mark Hulbert: Here’s the stock index you want to own to keep on top of inflation (13/08/2021 - Market Watch)
    Making a case for the Russell 2000 as an inflation hedge.
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  37. Sunanda Pushkar death case: Order on framing of charges against Shashi Tharoor on August 18 (27/07/2021 - Financial Express)
    The court also allowed the Delhi Police to submit additional documents related to the case.
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  38. Mexico Inflation Expectations (15/03/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Inflation Expectations in Mexico increased to 3.54 percent in August from 3.49 percent in July of 2020. Inflation Expectations in Mexico averaged 5.34 Percent from 1997 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 17.21 Percent in November of 1998 and a record low of 3.19 Percent in February of 2016. In Mexico, inflation expectations refer to one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the servey conducted in the private sector. This page provides - Mexico Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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  39. : Fund managers agree with the Fed as most say inflation will be transitory (15/06/2021 - Market Watch)
    A survey of fund managers found nearly three-quarters think the current spike in consumer prices will calm down.
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  40. What's your strategy for high inflation (06/06/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    As you may know there are rumors on having high inflation forwards the end of the year or next year. What's your strategy in case of high inflation? What kind of investment decisions are you going to make?   submitted by   /u/nocapitalgain [link]   [comments]
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  41. Inflation likely to stabilise rest of the year: RBI’s August bulletin (17/08/2021 - Financial Express)
    “So far, inflation is on track to staying within the trajectory envisaged and it is likely to stabilise during the rest of the year. In our view, this is a credible forward-looking mission statement for the path of inflation,” said the authors, one of whom is deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
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  42. Project Syndicate: The ghost of Arthur Burns haunts a complacent Federal Reserve that’s pouring fuel on the fires of inflation (25/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    In the early 1970s, the Fed chairman insisted that inflationary trends were transitory and best ignored. An economist who was there worries that today's Fed is making the same mistake.
    [visit article]
  43. Project Syndicate: The ghost of Arthur Burns haunts a complacent Federal Reserve that’s pouring fuel on the fires of inflation (25/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    In the early 1970s, the Fed chairman insisted that inflationary trends were transitory and best ignored. An economist who was there worries that today's Fed is making the same mistake.
    [visit article]
  44. Does anyone else use their stock portfolio as their emergency fund instead of leaving it in a savings account? (06/09/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Earlier this year I had my 6 months of expenses in a savings account. But then around February-April inflation fears started being spread all across the media. And instead of being afraid of stock market crash. My thoughts were why am I keeping so much cash in a savings account if inflation is eating away at it each year. My thinking is even if my portfolio crashes 90%. I would still have enough to cover 6 months of expenses. But the thing is if that worst case happens and SPY/VOO/VTI crashed 90% there might be bigger issues in the world than the money I lost. The best case is my capital appreciates higher than the .01% as well as higher than inflation than it would have gotten in a savings account. Anyone else do this?   submitted by   /u/WickedSensitiveCrew [link]   [comments]
    [visit article]
  45. Gambia Inflation Rate (20/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Inflation Rate in Gambia increased to 7.57 percent in January from 5.67 percent in December of 2020. Inflation Rate in Gambia averaged 8.07 percent from 1962 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 75.64 percent in August of 1986 and a record low of -10.91 percent in July of 1964. In Gambia, the inflation rate measures a broad rise or fall in prices that consumers pay for a standard basket of goods. This page provides - Gambia Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
    [visit article]
  46. Yikes. CPI +0.8% April, 4.2% headline YoY, 3.0% core YoY (12/05/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Consumer Price Index-April 2021 (bls.gov) 1/3 of the inflation came from used cars spiking 10% But energy inflation was negative for the month 0.4% in food (4.8% annualized) "Nearly all major component indexes increased in April. Along with the index for used cars and trucks, the indexes for shelter, airline fares, recreation, motor vehicle insurance, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes with a large impact on the overall increase" My opinion, only that, is that this is transitory inflation, related to dislocation impacts of COVID/supply chain shortages that will be resolved. *But* it could become baked in if it continues for a sustained period of time (a couple years). That's when it could become dangerous.   submitted by   /u/Robincapitalists [link]   [comments]
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  47. NewsWatch: Investors worry inflation will persist after a spike this summer — but that likely won’t be the case (28/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    Faster inflation later this year will be the result of a comparison with artificially low consumer prices a year earlier during the pandemic.
    [visit article]
  48. Inflation trade (15/06/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    There is a lot of data coming out about hot inflation and how the fed is being too loose with monetary policy. If that's the case then industrial and material stocks should boom. What stocks do you suggest?   submitted by   /u/assetguru [link]   [comments]
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  49. Root bolsters leadership team with new hires (07/06/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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