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28 July 2021
19:48 hour

The Tell: This is the technical reason why the 10-year Treasury rate has a chance of getting back to around 1.4%

Market Watch

21/07/2021 - 23:06

Monday's U.S. government-bond rally, which briefly sent the benchmark rate to a five-month low below 1.18%, 'marked an overbought trend' that could lead to a reversal, according to Bank of America research note.


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  1. The Tell: How high can rates go? This chart shows this year’s sharp climb in long-term Treasury rates (09/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds is back to pre-COVID levels at 2.307% on Monday, while the 10-year rate likely has room to rise further.
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  2. The Tell: How high can rates go? This chart shows this year’s sharp climb in long-term Treasury rates (09/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds is back to pre-COVID levels at 2.307% on Monday, while the 10-year rate likely has room to rise further.
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  3. Market Extra: Bond rally puts a 1% 10-year Treasury yield back in sight (19/07/2021 - Market Watch)
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  4. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yields tilt lower, with stocks set to face pressure to start the week (17/05/2021 - Market Watch)
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  5. Market Extra: 10-year Treasury yield lingers below 1.60% to begin week (19/04/2021 - Market Watch)
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  6. Market Extra: 10-year Treasury yield lingers below 1.60% to begin week (19/04/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields tick higher in early Monday trade as investors gauge the sustainability of last week's bond market rally that took the 10-year Treasury rate below 1.60%.
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  7. What’s going to drive the 10 year back up? (13/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Tech and growth have been doing amazing lately with the fast decline of the 10 year treasury bonds. This has come at the expense of many stocks who don’t do well in a low treasury bond environment. So the question is, what is going to be the catalyst that starts the 10 year incline and starts the rotation back out of tech and growth into more value plays?   submitted by   /u/calipfarris01 [link]   [comments]
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  8. When will 10 year treasury yield rate be priced into the market?? (19/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Was just wondering when the consensus is that the increasing 10 year treasury yield rate will be priced into the market? I am tired of all my tech stocks getting obliterated lol...   submitted by   /u/TheCrentistsoffice [link]   [comments]
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  9. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield adds to slide ahead of data (25/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    Long-dated Treasury yields on Thursday are set to fall for a fourth consecutive day, with the 10-year Treasury rate hanging around its lowest level in over a week. Investors have attributed the price gains in yields partly to the concerns about Europe's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has fueled buying in U.S. government debt.
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  10. Market Extra: What the 10-year Treasury rate’s dip below 1.5% may be saying about inflation (29/06/2021 - Market Watch)
    The 10-year Treasury yield could be 'replaying a scenario that happened after the 2008 crisis,' says Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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  11. 10 year treasury yield and inflation, what else holind the market back? (16/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    In last February, the market crushed (we can argue about market correction or whatever you call it) because of two things, the 10 year treasury yield and inflation were rising. In last few weeks, the 10-year yields have been decliing and today it hit 1.57. On the others hand, we haven't seen any notable evidence of inflation becoming a wild big issue. I wonder what else is holinding the growth stock back?   submitted by   /u/MangoExternal [link]   [comments]
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  12. Bond Report: Treasury yields edge higher, with 10-year taking aim at 1.30% (23/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields rise Friday, with the 10-year taking another run at the 1.30% level after pulling back in the previous session when data showed a drop in first-time jobless benefit claims.
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  13. Anyone else fight toxic feelings after a great green day? (03/05/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  14. ok, permabears, who saw today's plunge coming? (08/07/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    spy and qqq both down 1.5%. without any catalyst. no permabear saw this coming. and 10 yr treasury rate down as well. back then in Feb to May, rate up = stock down. what now? what's your new excuse? muuuuh inflation? muuuuuh hyperinflation? then why is treasury yields down big? delta variant? nope, its been in US for months. fed talk? nope, coz if it is, yesterday the stocks would plunge, yet stocks rose after fed minutes released. just shows you how useless the permabears are.   submitted by   /u/doitrodiz [link]   [comments]
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  15. Can someone help me understand the 10 year treasury rate? (05/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Bonds have always been a little confusing to me so I’m sure I’m missing something. My understanding is that the 10 yr treasury rate (the yield %) goes up when demand for treasuries is low. So right now the market seems to be pretty worried about this rising rate and I don’t get why. If investors ARENT buying bonds.. then doesn’t that mean the money is otherwise just going into the stock market? Why does a low demand for bonds = a bad thing for the stock market? I thought it was the other way around so I think I’m missing something here and would love to understand more.   submitted by   /u/Bobby3127 [link]   [comments]
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  16. Stop panicking, its going to be ok (04/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    First of all, when you think about it, Nasdaq only lost 7% in a month. That means the huge majority of smart money is still holding and doesn't think there's a reason to panic. When smart money panics, you have the covid crash. Secondly, its important to understand why there is so much red recently. The main reason is the fear due to the rising 10 year old treasury yield. When we woke up this morning, it did spike in a scary way, but now its going back down sharply, we are fine: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=^TNX&.tsrc=fin-srch Now, even if this stupid 10 year old treasury yield did not go down, most people would agree these fears are irrational. Check this quick interview: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/video/philadelphia-fed-harker-don-t-011809466.html Historically, the rates, they go down, not up. The fear of massive interest rates are irrational, and as i said earlier, its only ~7% of people who are pulling out of nasdaq, that's a small number of people who's irrationally fearful. Feds have been under their target of 2% for a LONG time, they aren't concerned about this. Additionally, Biden agreed to tighten the covid stimulus requirements. This is good news because it means its less likely to over heat the economy beyond control. And when that stimulus does get released, its hard to imagine it won't at least give a small boost to the markets. I also think we need to look at the bright side. Historically, most crash happens when the market overheat. Corrections like we are having right now help avoid a real full breakdown of the market, and they help buy cheaper dips. I also think there is a decent chance our buddy JPow props up the market today with his speech ;)   submitted by   /u/Floofyboy [link]   [comments]
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  17. Yield curve, bull trap, tread lightly this week (treasury auctions, CPI) (09/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  18. Bond Report: U.S. Treasury yields edge lower as Fed policy support holds off reflation trade (11/02/2021 - Market Watch)
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  19. Looking at US CPI report, China’s PPI and CPI report, and the treasury offering this week. Yield spike beginning to look more like drama. (10/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
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  20. Looking at US CPI report, China’s PPI and CPI report, and the treasury offering this week. Yield spike beginning to look more like drama. (11/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Looking at US CPI report, China’s PPI and CPI report, and the treasury offering this week. Yield spike beginning to look more like drama. With CPI reported in line with expectation, or slightly below within some sectors, it does indicate that inflationary pressure is likely temporary and is driven by supply and logistic disruption due to the pandemic. In addition, with China PPI reported in line or slightly higher while core CPI was also slightly under expectation, further add to the idea of a temporary inflation driven by supply-logistic disruption. US treasury 10 year offering today went well, with over $2.7 bid per dollar offered. And foreign interest bounded back to over 58%, just slightly below high. Its looking more and more likely that the recent yield spike is caused by dramatized media covering of the bad auction of the 7-year bills few week ago. Looking at the today and yesterday’s auction result, the demand is strong, and that’s taking into account that USD has declined about after a 8-9%. The reality is that the giant global government bond market has no better choice. US , is practically the only one issued by developed country that still has a positive rate. So there are only 3 options: safe bonds with negative rate, risky bonds with positive rate, or US bills which is safe but dismal positive rate. The reality is that, at the moment, US bills offering is still seem as the best out of a basket of crappy choices.   submitted by   /u/sendokun [link]   [comments]
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  21. Market Extra: 10-year Treasury yield holds below 1.50% as bond market selloff cools (01/03/2021 - Market Watch)
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  22. Market Extra: 10-year Treasury yield holds below 1.50% as bond market selloff cools (01/03/2021 - Market Watch)
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  23. Pakistan Six Month Treasury Bill Rate (16/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    Interbank Rate in Pakistan decreased to 7.19 percent in December from 7.20 percent in November of 2020. Interbank Rate in Pakistan averaged 9.94 percent from 1991 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 17.42 percent in May of 1997 and a record low of 1.21 percent in July of 2003. In Pakistan, the interbank rate is the rate of interest charged on short-term loans made between banks. This page provides - Pakistan Six Month Treasury Bill Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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  24. India Treasury Bill 91 Day Yield (09/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    India Treasury Bill 91 Day Yield increased to 3.37 percent on Friday February 5 from 3.35 percent in the previous day. Interbank Rate in India averaged 7.25 percent from 1993 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 12.97 percent in July of 1995 and a record low of 2.93 percent in November of 2020. In India, the interbank rate is the rate of interest charged on short-term loans made between banks. This page provides - India Treasury Bill Yield - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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  25. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury retreats below 1.50%, as bonds take breather from selloff (26/02/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields pull back in early Friday trade, offering some respite for market participants grappling with the speed of the bond-market selloff.
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  26. Bond Report: Treasury yields rise ahead of U.S. weekly jobless claims (01/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    Treasury yields rise to start the new month, third quarter and second half in a year. Long-dated debt is coming off a quarter that saw the sharpest rate declines since the first quarter of 2020.
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  27. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield falls below 1.50% on weak U.S. jobs report, then bounces back (07/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields fall below 1.50% Friday, for the first time since early March, after a much weaker-than-expected monthly U.S. employment report, but then yields completely retrace their drop by the end of the session.
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  28. What is causing volatility down so much today? (02/06/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Looking at VIX, it’s down so much, again closer to 52-week low. And I’m seeing so much money flow back into many of what rallied back in the beginning of this year, most of which are small cap and growth. I see so much confidence shifting back from the value to the growth now. People are now more certain than ever that inflation/tapering isn’t an issue until the next year? Is this the main reason why the volatility is and will be down for awhile?   submitted by   /u/I_whip_idiots [link]   [comments]
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  29. Bond Report: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield bounces back to 1.60% as investors eye debt supply (26/04/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields rise in early Monday's trade, kicking off the week with a bearish tilt as investors eyed a rush of new debt issuance that could weigh on bond trading.
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  30. Back testing software for stocks (26/06/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Hello everyone. I'm looking for some advice. I've recently started trading stocks more often than just simply investing in funds. Thus far this year, I've done well. However, I'm interested in knowing if the system I am using will actually withstand the test of time. There are many factors that go into me actually getting into a stock, but my entry point and exit point are based on technical indicators once I've identified quality stocks. It's pretty simple really, I'm just using the awesome oscillator and a couple other basic technical indicators. Are there any software packages that would allow me to do back testing without breaking the bank? Thoughts? I appreciate all the feedback!   submitted by   /u/Accurate_Message_750 [link]   [comments]
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  31. Technical analysis haters: how do you trade? (10/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    All over the internet I see people bashing technical analysis. However, they never state an alternative trading strategy. They just write posts where they ramble on and on about how technical analysis is astrology, and that’s it. So to anyone who hates technical analysis, please tell me how you trade. Until someone tells me that there is a superior strategy to technical analysis, I will continue to believe that technical analysis is valid, as there are tons of people who trade successfully using technical analysis.   submitted by   /u/mr_big_brain [link]   [comments]
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  32. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield steadies after sliding to 5-month low (20/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    Treasury yields stabilize early Tuesday, with the 10-year hovering near unchanged after falling to its lowest level since February.
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  33. Nasdaq pulls back as 10-year Treasury yield tops 1.7% (18/03/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  34. Gold & Silver: The King Fights Back (01/03/2021 - INO.com)
    The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 1.61% last week for the first time in more than a year. The U.S. dollar, aka “King,” fought back to the upside on this growth of the yield. Investors ran out of other assets, including precious metals, and its price dropped. Let us see the updated structure of […] The post Gold & Silver: The King Fights Back appeared first on INO.com Trader's Blog.
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  35. Nasdaq bounces with stocks as 10-year Treasury yield pulls back (19/03/2021 - Seeking Alpha)

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  36. S&P 500 FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL (28/02/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    The S&P 500 index pulled back sharply towards the end of last week as rising Treasury yields triggered broad profit-taking activity in equities. The tech sector was among the hardest hit. The US 10-year treasury yield climbed more than 200% from an August low of 0.508% to a recent high of 1.600% on the back of rising reflationary expectations. Higher Treasury yields make stocks less appealing as compared to government bonds, as the latter appear to be offering better returns considering a risk-adjusted basis. The recent selloff may again prove to be another healthy correction along the stock market’s upward trajectory, as the fundamental picture remains largely supportive for a long-term bull run. President Joe Biden’s US$ 1.9 trillion Covid relief aid is around the corner, and a new multitrillion infrastructure bill is likely to be revealed in March. Aggressive fiscal spending points to rising reflation hopes, which inevitably led longer-dated Treasury yields higher as a result.   submitted by   /u/TommyWoodds [link]   [comments]
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  37. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury heads for largest weekly rise in 6 weeks as inflation fears percolate (19/02/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields climb early Friday, with the 10-year Treasury note headed for its sharpest yield rise in about six weeks, as debt prices come under pressure over worries of pent-up inflation, even as recent employment data have struggled to support fears of reflation.
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  38. Bond Report: U.S. government bond yields pull back after 30-year breaches 2% (08/02/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. 10-year Treasury rates on Monday retreat, and prices edge higher, after yields momentarily climbed near to a one-year high.
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  39. What causes 30 year US Treasury yield to rise? (28/04/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    I researched on the web and it seems bond yields fall if their prices rise and vice versa. It makes total sense to me. Now what is causing 30 year US treasury yield to rise? https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TYX:INDEXCBOE Is it because 30 years US treasury bills are issued at lower price? Does that mean only Federal Reserve's actions affect the bond yields?   submitted by   /u/FitSkirtShirt [link]   [comments]
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  40. Advice (11/03/2021 - Reddit Stock Market)
    Hey y'all. I have a question. I am an 18 year old who is very interested in the stock market. I have been studying it for the past year or so and I found myself more in line with the style of the fundamental investor. I have read Peter Lynch's books and when I make my mock portfolios(I do not have a sizeable amount of money to invest in the stock market) I try to look at the history of the company, analyze its fundamentals, look at its balance sheets, etc. It's something I enjoy doing and I actually have a chance to learn a lot about certain industries and I hope to use the knowledge I gain to one day hold stocks long term and checking in on their stories every few months or so. I know there is another aspect to trading which is analyzing stocks through technical analysis. I am completely unfamiliar with it and I would like to learn more about it. However, I feel that if I start to focus on the technical analysis, I will be more so focused on the daily or weekly trends of share prices that I will not be making any of my decisions based on the foundations of the company and its goals. I feel like staring at a screen all day watching graphs and trying to determine patterns is almost like gambling with no logical basis. So I guess my question is, as a person who wants to learn more about investing in the stock market, should I see what technical analysis has to offer or do my dispositions have some basis? If any of you use technical analysis or a mix of fundamental and tech how is the experience? Thank you.   submitted by   /u/MysticGeld [link]   [comments]
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  41. Futures Movers: Oil resumes rally as dollar, Treasury yields pull back (09/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    Oil futures trade higher Tuesday, finding renewed support as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pull back.
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  42. Futures Movers: Oil resumes rally as dollar, Treasury yields pull back (09/03/2021 - Market Watch)
    Oil futures trade higher Tuesday, finding renewed support as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields pull back.
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  43. United Kingdom 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (08/02/2021 - Trading Economics)
    United Kingdom 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction Bond Yield was 1.06 percent on Monday February 8, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the United Kingdom 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction reached an all time high of 16.01 in September of 1981.
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  44. No need to panic (04/03/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    Why is the market tanking in recent weeks? First, what it isn't: Treasury yields. Don't listen to the news. This just means that no one wants to buy bonds so the price of bonds is going up to attract new investors. This happens in a healthy economy. Can't believe the fake news is really pushing this. What I would see if this was anything other than a correction: Consumer cyclical and natural resource holdings would increase with major investment firms. Positions in small cap stocks would decrease. Real estate holdings would increase. How I know these things aren't happening: It's best to track these activities through major firms and ETFs. I track SPY's holdings daily. They have teams of analysts and resources I just don't have. They're the first to know. I do not watch the news for financial information. So what is it? I see firms reorganizing portfolio's for a post-C19 market. IE, aerospace and defense stocks are going up in the same time the Nasdaq was down 9%. Travel stocks like JetBlue are also doing well in that time frame. When will it stop? Who knows, but it couldn't have been expected and it's too late to sell high and buy low now. I'm waiting it out. I have been increasing positions with remaining cash but I'm out going forward. Will tech rebound? Yes. New tech is where the money is. I see strong cross-sector growth continuing through Q3 this year. Q1 industrial is very strong so far. Many of these up and coming tech companies are going to be pushing into their manufacturing phases. How bonds work since many don't understand (I don't blame them): The "price" of bonds go down as demand goes up and goes up when the demand goes down. Think of it this way, the lower I sell my bond, the less money I have to spend in the long run as a bond "seller". As a buyer, I get more money if I buy a bond with a high rate of return vs low. So you won't sell many bonds with a low rate. Thus, if bonds need to be sold, the rate goes up. This is an indication that no one is buying them and the money is likely going to the market or being held as cash. Thus, a yield from a bond is how much money you'll make based on the rate of return. This is reflected in the Treasury Yield curve. The curve itself reacts faster with short-term bonds than long-term bonds. If they cross, this can be a bad indication of rapid market changes. The safest investment in the entire world is a US Treasury Bond. That's for two main reason: first, it's never lost anyone money; second, the US has the ability to tax the wealthiest population on the planet if anything happens. So what that means, people put their money in US bonds when they think things aren't going well. When things are going well, they get out of them and put the money back in the market.   submitted by   /u/Ok-Midnight9757 [link]   [comments]
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  45. Metals Stocks: Gold prices edge higher as Yellen walks back talk of interest-rate hike (05/05/2021 - Market Watch)
    Gold prices inch up on Wednesday morning, a day after the commodity finished lower on the back of comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which were viewed as bearish for precious metals.
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  46. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield stands near 1.30% as bond-market selloff takes a breather (18/02/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields lack direction early Thursday as investors sift through a raft of tepid economic data that belied the pent-up hopes for reflation later this year.
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  47. Bond Report: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up as bond rally pauses (21/07/2021 - Market Watch)
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rises Wednesday, extending a bounce off a five-month low.
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  48. Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield rises near 1.5% amid global debt market sell-off (25/02/2021 - Market Watch)
    U.S. Treasury yields rose on early Thursday's trade as global bond markets were on the backfoot in expectation of the reopening of their economies later this year.
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  49. This cant be legal right? Etoro closed position below market. Advice requested (25/02/2021 - Reddit Stocks)
    On Tuesday as the market dipped, I took a leveraged CFD position in an index on Etoro, watched it climb to a profit, but as I prepared to sell, Etoro had a technical issue which kept me signed out for give or take an hour. When it allowed me back into my account the trade was at a big loss, far below my stop loss. This was obviously worrying as the downside risk of my trade had increased a lot; but I still had faith in my decision and watched it climb back into a profit, before I had the chance to sell, Etoro had MORE technical issues, this time locking me out for the entire evening/morning. When It allowed me back in my trade had been closed just hours before, when the market was well above my stop-loss level. I started emailing Etoro for help and they claim to have retroactively closed my position for the price that the stop-loss would have activated. Key points: The same technical issue that stopped me from selling in a profit, stopped their stop-loss from closing my trade They closed my trade without my consent, and I did not receive even close to market value at the time of my trade being closed If we are able to retroactively pick a point on a chart where I should have sold, but didn't due to ETOROs technical issue why at the point of maximum loss and not maximum gain (or at least where I tried and was signed out)? I have tried to contact Etoro support, but they sent one canned response saying what they did, and have stopped answering. I understand I entered a risky position, I am ok with the risk of losing due to the market, but it seems like Etoro made it impossible for me to do anything but lose the maximum amount here. I am using Australian Etoro if it makes a difference. Where can I go from here? Any advice?   submitted by   /u/tnucracso [link]   [comments]
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